719
FXUS61 KBGM 221809
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND FAR NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE WINDING DOWN TONIGHT. THE FIRST TRUE TASTE OF SUMMER
ARRIVES THIS WEEK WITH DAY TIME HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS, PRODUCING DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
EARLY THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
845 AM UPDATE...
AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET IS COMBINING WITH A STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HIGH LEVELS OF MUCAPE/PWATS TO CREATE AN AREA OF
HEAVY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL NY AND FAR NE PA
THIS MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS CAN
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. PWATS ARE
APPROACHING 2" ACROSS CENTRAL NY, ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3-4
INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR ACROSS CHENANGO COUNTY, WITH 2-3.5 INCHES
ACROSS SURROUNDING LOCATIONS/COUNTIES. THIS IS CAUSING
SIGNIFICANT FLASH-FLODING/FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. PLEASE HEED
THE LATEST WARNINGS! CAMS SHOW THIS AREA OF TRAINING CONVECTION
DRIFTING SW WARD INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
STALLING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES ALONG AND SW OF THE FRONT.
100 AM UPDATE..
THE MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NORTH OF THE AREA, STARTING TO BOW
AND MOVE SOUTHWARD. CONTRARY TO GUIDANCE, WHERE HALF OF
SOLUTIONS FAVOR A MORE EASTWARD TRACK, AS WELL AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS ATTEMPTING TO KEEP THIS MCS ON AN EASTWARD
TRACK, IT SEEMS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-81, BUT VERY WELL COULD EXTEND INTO
ALL OF CENTRAL NY. THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF GETTING
CLOSER TO THE NY-PA STATE BORDER.
FOR TOMORROW, ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WILL BE DRASTICALLY
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SURFACE BASED. BY 5 AM THIS MORNING,
GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCAPE OF UP TO 2500 J/KG COMING INTO THE NW HALF
OF OUR CWA, AND BY 8 AM THAT INCREASES TO 3500 J/KG AS MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 8 C/KM IN THE EML ENVIRONMENT. IF
ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY COULD HAVE
EXTREMELY HIGH STORM TOPS, REACHING 50K FT OR HIGHER. DCAPE
VALUES ALSO REACH 850 J/KG, SO DESPITE A MINOR LOW LEVEL STABLE
LAYER, IF THE WINDS CAN BREAK THROUGH THIS, STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
HEADING INTO LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON IT IS LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GETTING UP NEAR 598 DM WHICH IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH. DRY AIR ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY HELP LIMIT
DEW POINTS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S BUT IF DRY AIR DOES NOT
MIX IN OR EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH MIXING, DEW
POINTS MAY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS TODAY PUSH INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S SO WIDESPREAD HEAD INDICES OF 100+ ARE
LIKELY. LIMITING FACTORS TO THE HEAT IS THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO HAVE WEAK CAPPING. IN PREVIOUS SIMILAR SET UPS WITH VERY
STRONG RIDGING AND HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THAT ENDED UP DROPPING TEMPERATURES BEFORE THEY
WERE ABLE TO GET AS WARM AS FORECAST SO THAT COULD OCCUR AGAIN.
HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUE, AND WE WILL SEE PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN ABOUT 95 TO 104 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
SEEMS TO BE NO NEED TO UPGRADE ANY ZONES TO EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS MENTIONED
ABOVE.
MONDAY WILL BE HOTTER, WITH THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD,
AND HEAT INDICES UP TO 104 EXPECTED. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE GOING INTO THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
130 AM UPDATE...
STRONG RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS UP AROUND 595 T0 598 DM. WITH THE JET STREAM BACK TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKER FLOW OVER OUR REGION ALONG WITH A STOUT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME FORMING IN THE AFTERNOONS DESPITE PLENTY OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. STILL AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE IS STILL 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE.
MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO BREAK
THROUGH THE STRONG CAPPING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO ADD CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE CATSKILLS OR POCONOS ON
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
FLATTEN WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE AT
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTHWARD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK SOUTH.
DAY TIME HIGHS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY AIR IN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY MIX IN SO THAT COULD HELP LOWER DEW
POINTS A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY HOT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
130 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING FAIRLY ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT AND WE END UP ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUT US INTO THE "RING OF FIRE" WITH
FREQUENT SHORTWAVES AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING THROUGH.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE KEPT HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WHEN THERE IS PLENTY OF CAPE. AS OF NOW
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLES DONT SHOW GREAT PROBABILITY OF
SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE BUT STILL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE AROUND 15
TO 25 WHICH IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO EACH
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THURSDAY ONWARD ARE HIGH
AND RESIDE OVER 1.5 INCHES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SO FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
2 PM UPDATE
MVFR CIGS ARE LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCLUDING RME,
SYR, ITH AND BGM. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE TEMPOS FOR TSRA AT BGM AND ITH
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE BOUNDARY DOES DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST SO THAT MOST
TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 19-21Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS,
BEFORE ADDITIONAL STRATUS CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG/MIST DEVELOP
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AT RME, ITH AND BGM OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT BGM DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL,
SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH DEW POINTS.
ANY MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG SCATTER AND BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING, LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/MJM
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...KL/MJM
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