739
FXUS61 KBGM 222040
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
440 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS EVENING, BEFORE WINDING DOWN TONIGHT. THE
FIRST TRUE TASTE OF SUMMER ARRIVES THIS WEEK WITH DAY TIME
HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS, PRODUCING DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES EARLY THIS
WEEK. HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
340 PM UPDATE
THE MCS THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH
FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS EXITED
THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA, WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL NY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A CAP OVER THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN STILL OCCUR
OVER CENTRAL NY, BUT IT THEN LOOKS TO DRY OUR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
VERY HUMID THIS EVENING, AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID-70S OVERNIGHT WITH
VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS.
MONDAY FEATURES STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 22C ALONG WITH 580-580DM
1000-500MB THICKNESSES. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID-90S, WITH EVEN SOME UPPER
90S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL REACH
BETWEEN 95 TO 105 ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME OF THE URBAN
VALLEYS REACHING EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA, WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES ABOVE 105 ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, WYOMING VALLEY,
CHEMUNG VALLEY AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THEREFORE, HEAT
ADVISORIES WERE UPGRADED TO EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ON MONDAY, FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. QUIET, WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
415 PM UPDATE
STRONG RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY, WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
AROUND, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS NOTHING TO INITIATE ANY LIFT
TO GET STORMS GOING. WITH THAT SAID WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES OF
CENTRAL NY.
DAY TIME HIGHS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY AIR IN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY MIX IN SO THAT COULD HELP LOWER DEW
POINTS A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY HOT.
HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 95 TO 105 IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING BACK HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY LIGHT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UP TO 25 KTS. PWATS ARE HIGH, APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES SO
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. IT
WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
435 PM UPDATE
AN ACTIVE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS OUR AREA REMAINS IN A WESTERLY, ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
WILL BRING FREQUENT SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL TAP
INTO AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES EACH DAY. PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2 INCHES
EACH DAY, SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
THREATS MOST DAYS IN THIS TIME PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 25 TO 40 KTS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE EACH
DAY AS WELL; SO WHILE IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN AN DETAILS
ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE MOST
DAYS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER STEADY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S EXPECTED EACH DAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
2 PM UPDATE
MVFR CIGS ARE LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCLUDING RME,
SYR, ITH AND BGM. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE TEMPOS FOR TSRA AT BGM AND ITH
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE BOUNDARY DOES DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST SO THAT MOST
TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 19-21Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS,
BEFORE ADDITIONAL STRATUS CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG/MIST DEVELOP
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AT RME, ITH AND BGM OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT BGM DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL,
SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH DEW POINTS.
ANY MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG SCATTER AND BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING, LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TOWARD 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-048-072.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ038-043-044-047.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ038-043-044-047.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ038-
043-044-047.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>017-022-
036-037-044>046-057-062.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ018-023>025-055-
056.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ018-023>025-055-056.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ018-
023>025-055-056.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MJM
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