504
FXUS61 KBGM 230612
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY
MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH
AS 110 DEGREES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN URBAN AREAS. WEDNESDAY
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL MUGGY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
200 AM UPDATE
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEW POINTS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH ALL THE RAINFALL YESTERDAY, THE GROUND IS
WET ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND EAST AND WITH NEARLY FULL SUN
TODAY, HIGH EVAPORATION RATES COULD KEEP UP WITH DAY TIME
MIXING. DEW POINTS WERE RAISED A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
INCREASED DEW POINTS, HEAT INDICES WENT UP A LITTLE, THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE HEAT WARNINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE, WITH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
REGION STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH THE CATSKILLS AND TUG
HILL BEING THE ONLY REGIONS THAT COOL INTO THE 60S.
TUESDAY REMAINS HOT WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS
MONDAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
START TO FALL. THE CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS SO BY
THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONVECTION INHIBITION
SO STORMS COULD FIRE OFF JUST BEFORE PEAK HEAT AND COOL THINGS
OFF SO THE HEAT WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
415 PM UPDATE
STRONG RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY, WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
AROUND, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS NOTHING TO INITIATE ANY LIFT
TO GET STORMS GOING. WITH THAT SAID WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES OF
CENTRAL NY.
DAY TIME HIGHS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY AIR IN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY MIX IN SO THAT COULD HELP LOWER DEW
POINTS A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY HOT.
HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 95 TO 105 IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING BACK HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY LIGHT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UP TO 25 KTS. PWATS ARE HIGH, APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES SO
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. IT
WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
435 PM UPDATE
AN ACTIVE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS OUR AREA REMAINS IN A WESTERLY, ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
WILL BRING FREQUENT SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL TAP
INTO AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES EACH DAY. PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2 INCHES
EACH DAY, SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
THREATS MOST DAYS IN THIS TIME PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 25 TO 40 KTS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE EACH
DAY AS WELL; SO WHILE IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN AN DETAILS
ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE MOST
DAYS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER STEADY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S EXPECTED EACH DAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH ALL THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR IFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT SYR WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT COOLED AS FAST. ONCE THE FOG SCATTERS OFF TOMORROW BETWEEN
12Z AND 13Z, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-048-072.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038-043-044-
047.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ038-043-044-047.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ038-043-044-047.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>017-022-
036-037-044>046-057-062.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ018-023>025-
055-056.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ018-023>025-055-056.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ018-023>025-055-056.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...AJG
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