731
FXUS61 KBGM 231806
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY
MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH
AS 110 DEGREES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN URBAN AREAS. WEDNESDAY
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL MUGGY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
645 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
200 AM UPDATE
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEW POINTS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH ALL THE RAINFALL YESTERDAY, THE GROUND IS
WET ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND EAST AND WITH NEARLY FULL SUN
TODAY, HIGH EVAPORATION RATES COULD KEEP UP WITH DAY TIME
MIXING. DEW POINTS WERE RAISED A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
INCREASED DEW POINTS, HEAT INDICES WENT UP A LITTLE, THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE HEAT WARNINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE, WITH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
REGION STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH THE CATSKILLS AND TUG
HILL BEING THE ONLY REGIONS THAT COOL INTO THE 60S.
TUESDAY REMAINS HOT WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS
MONDAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
START TO FALL. THE CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS SO BY
THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONVECTION INHIBITION
SO STORMS COULD FIRE OFF JUST BEFORE PEAK HEAT AND COOL THINGS
OFF SO THE HEAT WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
330 AM UPDATE...
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING BACK
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT COULD MOVE
ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BOTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY LIGHT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 25 KTS. PWATS ARE HIGH, APPROACHING 1.75
INCHES SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS OUR AREA REMAINS IN A WESTERLY, ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
WILL BRING FREQUENT SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL TAP
INTO AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES EACH DAY. PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2 INCHES
EACH DAY, SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
THREATS MOST DAYS IN THIS TIME PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 25 TO 40 KTS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE EACH
DAY AS WELL; SO WHILE IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN AN DETAILS
ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE MOST
DAYS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER STEADY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S EXPECTED EACH DAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY IN CONTROL. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN, THE FOG THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW AT
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL START TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL NY, BUT ANY
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-048-072.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-
043-044-047.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ038-043-044-047.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>017-022-
036-037-044>046-057-062.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ018-
023>025-055-056.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ018-023>025-055-056.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG/DK
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