648
FXUS61 KBGM 231933
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY
MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH
AS 110 DEGREES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN URBAN AREAS. WEDNESDAY
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL MUGGY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
645 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
200 AM UPDATE
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEW POINTS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH ALL THE RAINFALL YESTERDAY, THE GROUND IS
WET ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND EAST AND WITH NEARLY FULL SUN
TODAY, HIGH EVAPORATION RATES COULD KEEP UP WITH DAY TIME
MIXING. DEW POINTS WERE RAISED A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
INCREASED DEW POINTS, HEAT INDICES WENT UP A LITTLE, THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE HEAT WARNINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE, WITH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
REGION STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH THE CATSKILLS AND TUG
HILL BEING THE ONLY REGIONS THAT COOL INTO THE 60S.
TUESDAY REMAINS HOT WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS
MONDAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
START TO FALL. THE CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS SO BY
THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONVECTION INHIBITION
SO STORMS COULD FIRE OFF JUST BEFORE PEAK HEAT AND COOL THINGS
OFF SO THE HEAT WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
330 PM UPDATE...
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT MIDWEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTH OF THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW, INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ARE BOTH LOW BUT JUST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. MODELED INSTABILITY IS ONLY AROUND
500 J/KG WITH SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS. THE BEST CONDITIONS FOR
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS, AND THIS
SEEMS TO LINE UP WELL WITH SPC'S THINKING AS THEY MAINTAIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE STRONG GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
PWATS WILL BE 1.8 TO 2 INCHES. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE HOLDS ONTO
MINIMAL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY STABILIZE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ANYTHING THAT REMAINS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE JUST SHOWERS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH SOME THURSDAY BUT ALSO BECOMES
MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL
DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS AS SOME MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING WHILE OTHERS HAVE SHOWERS PRESENT ALL DAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH VALUES CREEPING UP AROUND 1000 J/KG.
SHEAR IS ALSO MODERATE AT 30 TO 40 KTS. OTHER INGREDIENTS SUCH AS
LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS FAVORABLE, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST
THOUGH AND PWATS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. WPC HAS A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN THEIR DAY 4 ERO, WITH MANY OF THE SAME AREAS FROM
WEDNESDAY'S OUTLOOK COVERED.
CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL MAX
OUT IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
70S. SOME RELIEF IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES THEN MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S THOUGH HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 60S AND 70S. MOST WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH A FEW HIGH
ELEVATIONS MAY JUST DIP INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
330 PM UPDATE...
THE FLOW REMAINS ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THIS PERIOD. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR EACH WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MOST LIMITED ON FRIDAY BUT IS HIGHER
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG EITHER, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT FOR THE RISK FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE
STALLED FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING WARMER
AIR TO PUSH NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY IN CONTROL. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN, THE FOG THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW AT
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL START TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL NY, BUT ANY
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-048-072.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-
043-044-047.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ038-043-044-047.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>017-022-
036-037-044>046-057-062.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ018-
023>025-055-056.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ018-023>025-055-056.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...AJG/DK
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