474
FXUS61 KBGM 232242
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
642 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND STEAMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 105 DEGREES IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND URBAN AREAS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THE CHANCE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
640 PM UPDATE:
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON PEAKED IN THE 90S PRETTY MUCH AREA-
WIDE, WITH SOME UNOFFICIAL READINGS IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AT,
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES. AT OUR THREE OFFICIAL CLIMATE
SITES (SYRACUSE, BINGHAMTON AIRPORT, AND AVOCA PA), RECORD
HIGHS WERE BROKEN (94 DEGREES AT SYRACUSE, 91 DEGREES AT
BINGHAMTON, AND 95 DEGREES AT AVOCA). WITH TEMPERATURES SO HOT
TODAY ALONG WITH SUCH A HUMID AIRMASS, IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MANY
AREAS MAY STILL BE AT 80 DEGREES OR HIGHER AT 11PM. WITH THIS
UPDATE, RAISED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BY BLENDING
IN THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR
ALL OF THIS.
OVERALL FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR NOW
(LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S) SINCE AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE PRESENT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70, SO IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY OUTSIDE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LEADING TO
CONTINUED HOT AND STEAMY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERE WON'T BE TOO MUCH RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. DESPITE THE HIGH DEW POINTS STAYING IN PLACE AND THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY, ENOUGH DRY AIR SEEMS TO PUSH IN
ALOFT TO KEEP FOG CHANCES LOW OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE A LARGELY DRY DAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY TOMORROW EVENING. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL
START TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, A HIGH CAPE, LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE CONTINUED HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POPPING UP IN WHAT LOOKS
TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN 21Z-00Z ACROSS CNY.
ANY ISOLATED STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PULSE UP AND
WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY WITH THE WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE, BUT ANY OF
THESE POSSIBLE PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA OUTSIDE OF THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS TOMORROW
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S WITH
SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN NE PA REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND
104 IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
330 PM UPDATE...
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT MIDWEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTH OF THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW, INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ARE BOTH LOW BUT JUST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. MODELED INSTABILITY IS ONLY AROUND
500 J/KG WITH SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS. THE BEST CONDITIONS FOR
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS, AND THIS
SEEMS TO LINE UP WELL WITH SPC'S THINKING AS THEY MAINTAIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE STRONG GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
PWATS WILL BE 1.8 TO 2 INCHES. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE HOLDS ONTO
MINIMAL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY STABILIZE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ANYTHING THAT REMAINS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE JUST SHOWERS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH SOME THURSDAY BUT ALSO BECOMES
MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL
DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS AS SOME MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING WHILE OTHERS HAVE SHOWERS PRESENT ALL DAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH VALUES CREEPING UP AROUND 1000 J/KG.
SHEAR IS ALSO MODERATE AT 30 TO 40 KTS. OTHER INGREDIENTS SUCH AS
LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS FAVORABLE, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST
THOUGH AND PWATS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. WPC HAS A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN THEIR DAY 4 ERO, WITH MANY OF THE SAME AREAS FROM
WEDNESDAY'S OUTLOOK COVERED.
CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL MAX
OUT IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
70S. SOME RELIEF IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES THEN MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S THOUGH HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 60S AND 70S. MOST WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH A FEW HIGH
ELEVATIONS MAY JUST DIP INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
330 PM UPDATE...
THE FLOW REMAINS ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THIS PERIOD. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR EACH WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MOST LIMITED ON FRIDAY BUT IS HIGHER
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG EITHER, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT FOR THE RISK FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE
STALLED FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING WARMER
AIR TO PUSH NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY IN CONTROL. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN, THE FOG THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW AT
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL START TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL NY, BUT ANY
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-048-072.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-
043-044-047.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038-043-044-047.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>017-022-
036-037-044>046-057-062.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ018-
023>025-055-056.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ018-023>025-055-
056.
SYNOPSIS...BJG/DK
NEAR TERM...BJG/DK
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...DK
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