853
FXUS61 KBGM 240703
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND STEAMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 105 DEGREES IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND URBAN AREAS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THE CHANCE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
810 PM UPDATE:
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 8PM. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA UNTIL
8PM WEDNESDAY.
640 PM UPDATE:
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON PEAKED IN THE 90S PRETTY MUCH AREA-
WIDE, WITH SOME UNOFFICIAL READINGS IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AT,
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES. AT OUR THREE OFFICIAL CLIMATE
SITES (SYRACUSE, BINGHAMTON AIRPORT, AND AVOCA PA), RECORD
HIGHS WERE BROKEN (94 DEGREES AT SYRACUSE, 91 DEGREES AT
BINGHAMTON, AND 95 DEGREES AT AVOCA). WITH TEMPERATURES SO HOT
TODAY ALONG WITH SUCH A HUMID AIRMASS, IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MANY
AREAS MAY STILL BE AT 80 DEGREES OR HIGHER AT 11PM. WITH THIS
UPDATE, RAISED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BY BLENDING
IN THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR
ALL OF THIS.
OVERALL FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR NOW
(LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S) SINCE AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE PRESENT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70, SO IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY OUTSIDE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LEADING TO
CONTINUED HOT AND STEAMY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERE WON'T BE TOO MUCH RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. DESPITE THE HIGH DEW POINTS STAYING IN PLACE AND THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY, ENOUGH DRY AIR SEEMS TO PUSH IN
ALOFT TO KEEP FOG CHANCES LOW OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE A LARGELY DRY DAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY TOMORROW EVENING. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL
START TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHES BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, A HIGH CAPE, LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE CONTINUED HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POPPING UP IN WHAT LOOKS
TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN 21Z-00Z ACROSS CNY.
ANY ISOLATED STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PULSE UP AND
WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY WITH THE WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE, BUT ANY OF
THESE POSSIBLE PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA OUTSIDE OF THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS TOMORROW
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S WITH
SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN NE PA REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND
104 IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
3 AM UPDATE...
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA. BEING ON THE NORTH
END OF THIS BOUNDARY, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. NORTH OF THE
FRONT, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH WITH EURO ENSEMBLE
SHOWING THE MEAN TO BE OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
IF THE FRONT TURNS OUT BEING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, THEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO WEAK OVER MOST OF THE REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NE PA. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME,
AS THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EURO
AND NAM AND THAT SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
305 AM UPDATE...
THE FLOW REMAINS ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THIS PERIOD. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WAS TOO OUR SOUTH WILL TICK NORTHWARD AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS PWATS REMAIN
ELEVATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, SO A
BREAK FROM THE HEAT FOR AWHILE. THE STALLED FRONT COULD LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POPPING UP AGAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL POKE ITS HEAD INTO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES TONIGHT, BRINGING LLWS OF
30-35KTS UP TO FL020 UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE FOR SYR AND ITH.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CLIMATE
AFTER RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT ALL THREE CLIMATE
SITES ON MONDAY, JUNE 23RD, RECORD DAILY HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE
SET ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY, JUNE 24TH. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SYRACUSE NY, BINGHAMTON NY, AND
AVOCA PA FOR JUNE 24TH:
SYRACUSE: 93 DEGREES IN 1949 AND 1952 (FORECAST: 94 DEGREES)
BINGHAMTON: 88 DEGREES IN 1975 (FORECAST: 91 DEGREES)
AVOCA: 94 DEGREES IN 1908 AND 1923 (FORECAST: 97 DEGREES)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...BJG/DK
NEAR TERM...BJG/DK
SHORT TERM...BTL/MPK
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
CLIMATE...
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