866
FXUS61 KBGM 241821
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND STEAMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE LOW 100S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
URBAN AREAS TODAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
620 AM UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
315 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT,
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS REMAIN
WARM, WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
SYRACUSE IS THE WARM SPOT, WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FELL AT ALL 3
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY (BINGHAMTON, AVOCA(PA), AND SYRACUSE),
AND THE SAME IS EXPECTED TODAY AS FORECAST HIGHS ARE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE THE RECORD FOR ALL 3 SITES; 91 AT BGM, 94 AT SYR,
AND 97 AT AVP(SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR CURRENT RECORDS). A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 8PM
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SET UP, AS THE
HRRR HAS MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WHICH CAPS MUCH
OF THE INSTABILITY WHILE THE NAM AND NAMNEST SHOW MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, WHICH PUTS CAPE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FIRE, BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 20KTS SO STORM
TYPE SHOULD BE SMALL, UNORGANIZED, SINGLE UPDRAFT CELLS THAT
HAVE A SHORT LIFESPAN. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
THAT A FEW CELLS MAY BE ABLE TO GET A STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT THAT
WHEN IT DISSIPATES, THE DOWNDRAFT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN SEVERAL CAM SOUNDINGS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AGAIN, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, MAKING FOR MUGGY SLEEPING
CONDITIONS.
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW WNW FLOW TO PUSH THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA STARTING IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES IN NY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
TWIN TIERS BY THE AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE TRIGGER NEEDED TO TAP
INTO CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR BETWEEN
20-30KTS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST, WITH PWATS IN THE TWIN TIERS BETWEEN 1.8 AND
2.2IN. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA. BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 80S, THE HEAT
ADVISORY WAS REMOVED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR
LUZERNE, PIKE AND SULLIVAN. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH HERE
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
220 PM UPDATE:
AFTER THE BREAK-DOWN OF THE RIDGE, A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE PRESENT WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA. BEING ON THE NORTH END OF THIS
BOUNDARY, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOW 80S. NORTH OF
THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH.
IF THE FRONT TURNS OUT BEING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, THEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO WEAK OVER MOST OF THE REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NE PA. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME,
AS THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EURO
AND NAM AND THAT SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TICK NORTHWARD AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ALSO PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
220 PM UPDATE:
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE GREATER ON SATURDAY
COMPARED TO FRIDAY. THE STALLED FRONT COULD LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POPPING UP AGAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON IF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PREVENT THE AREA FROM GETTING TOO HOT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POPPING UP THROUGH ABOUT 01Z FOR THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IS LOW,
SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AREAS OF FOG,
MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH ELM HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY IFR
RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 08-12Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON CAN LEAD TO SOME RESTRICTIONS AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
CLIMATE
AFTER RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT ALL THREE CLIMATE
SITES ON MONDAY, JUNE 23RD, RECORD DAILY HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE
SET ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY, JUNE 24TH. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SYRACUSE NY, BINGHAMTON NY, AND
AVOCA PA FOR JUNE 24TH:
SYRACUSE: 93 DEGREES IN 1949 AND 1952 (FORECAST: 94 DEGREES)
BINGHAMTON: 88 DEGREES IN 1975 (FORECAST: 91 DEGREES)
AVOCA: 94 DEGREES IN 1908 AND 1923 (FORECAST: 97 DEGREES)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-072.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ047-048.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...DK/JTC
CLIMATE...BJG
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