247
FXUS61 KBGM 250609
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
DECIDED NOT TO SPLIT UP THE SCRANTON WILKES BARRE AREA AND ADDED
LACKAWANNA COUNTY TO HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL NOW EXPIRE
WEDNESDAY AT 8 PM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THE STRONG, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL START TO WEAKEN, WITH THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO FLATTEN AND THE
OVERALL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO AND
BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT TO THE AREA TOMORROW, BUT THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THERE ARE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THAT WILL TRY TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST, BUT
THE CAMS SHOW MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY STRUGGLING TO LAST VERY
LONG INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND REACHING OUR AREA. AN ISOLATED
POP UP THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CNY AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ALL-IN-ALL IT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILARLY TO
WHAT WAS SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE CAN BE SOME AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG THAT FORM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOMORROW AND MOVES INTO THE TWIN
TIERS DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE INTO
A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THERE SOUTH WITH ABOUT 1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KNOTS, LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE ROBUST AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPC FOR THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH. ALSO, GIVEN THE
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND THE AREA, WPC HAS A SIMILAR AREA
HIGHLIGHTED AS A MARGINAL ERO AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH PWAT VALUES STILL LOOKING TO BE BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.2
INCHES. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MID 80S
ACROSS CNY TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS NE PA AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA, THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN LOW
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S TO THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FROM THE TWIN
TIERS SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
220 PM UPDATE:
AFTER THE BREAK-DOWN OF THE RIDGE, A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE PRESENT WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA. BEING ON THE NORTH END OF THIS
BOUNDARY, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOW 80S. NORTH OF
THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH.
IF THE FRONT TURNS OUT BEING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, THEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO WEAK OVER MOST OF THE REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NE PA. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME,
AS THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EURO
AND NAM AND THAT SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TICK NORTHWARD AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ALSO PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
220 PM UPDATE:
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE GREATER ON SATURDAY
COMPARED TO FRIDAY. THE STALLED FRONT COULD LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POPPING UP AGAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON IF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PREVENT THE AREA FROM GETTING TOO HOT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. GUIDANCE HINTS OF FOG AGAIN AT ELM, BUT TONIGHT'S SETUP
IS A BIT DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT WHEN WE HAD SOME BRIEF
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY FOG MOVED IN JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. WE HAVE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD,
KEEPING TEMPERATURE DROPS FROM OCCURRING AS FAST AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. TEMPS NEED TO FALL BELOW 66 AT ELM TONIGHT FOR FOG
TO DEVELOP, AND 69 IS THE FORECAST LOW.
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN TWIN TIERS THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING TO THE SE AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY IMPACT AVP IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....MAINLY VFR. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS BUT TERMINALS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS SET AT BGM, SYR AND AVP WITH HIGHS OF 91 AT BGM, 95
AT SYR AND AVP TODAY. PREVIOUS RECORDS ARE BELOW.
SYRACUSE: 93 DEGREES IN 1949 AND 1952, BINGHAMTON:
88 DEGREES IN 1975, AVOCA: 94 DEGREES IN 1908 AND 1923
BGM AND SYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD HIGHS
WEDNESDAY. AVP'S RECORD HIGH WEDNESDAY IS 95F SET IN 1943, WITH
A FORECAST HIGH OF 92F, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE RECORD.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ044-047-048.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...DK/DJN
NEAR TERM...DK/DJN
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page