670
FXUS61 KBGM 250703
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A COOL FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE TWIN TIERS. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
220 AM UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM TONIGHT, WITH
WIDESPREAD 70S REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. SYRACUSE REMAINS THE
HOT SPOT AS THEY JUST FELL BELOW 80, NOW CURRENTLY AT 79
DEGREES. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES TONIGHT, WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS WARM.
TODAY WILL FINALLY SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS THE RIDGE
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT OVER OUR CWA, ALLOWING A COOL FRONT TO
DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 90 AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. THE TWIN
TIERS, CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE HOT SPOTS WILL BE IN LACKAWANNA,
LUZERNE, PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 95-102. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE COUNTIES UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TWIN TIERS AREA BY
THE MID AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A FINGER OF HIGH MOISTURE THAT WILL SPILL INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO NEPA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED, WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG ACROSS NEPA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE MARGINAL, WITH 20-25KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE
FOR STORMS TO INGEST. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH, WITH
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE COULD SEE STORMS FORM WITH
UPDRAFTS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST. THESE FACTORS HAVE LEAD TO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE TWIN TIERS BEING IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND MUCH OF THE TWIN TIERS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING IS LOW TO MEDIUM AS CAMS ARE
STILL UNSURE AS TO HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION WILL PLAY
OUT, WITH SOME, INCLUDING THE HRRR, SHOWING A CAP AROUND 15K
FEET WHICH WOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, HELPING TO KEEP A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
SW FLOW ACROSS PA MOVES OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS
ESE FLOW FROM THE HIGH BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WE ARE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. WE WILL SEE A NICE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S FOR MOST, WITH LOW 80S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
220 PM UPDATE:
AFTER THE BREAK-DOWN OF THE RIDGE, A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE PRESENT WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA. BEING ON THE NORTH END OF THIS
BOUNDARY, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOW 80S. NORTH OF
THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH.
IF THE FRONT TURNS OUT BEING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, THEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO WEAK OVER MOST OF THE REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NE PA. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME,
AS THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EURO
AND NAM AND THAT SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TICK NORTHWARD AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ALSO PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
220 PM UPDATE:
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE GREATER ON SATURDAY
COMPARED TO FRIDAY. THE STALLED FRONT COULD LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POPPING UP AGAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON IF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PREVENT THE AREA FROM GETTING TOO HOT.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. GUIDANCE HINTS OF FOG AGAIN AT ELM, BUT TONIGHT'S SETUP
IS A BIT DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT WHEN WE HAD SOME BRIEF
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY FOG MOVED IN JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. WE HAVE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD,
KEEPING TEMPERATURE DROPS FROM OCCURRING AS FAST AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. TEMPS NEED TO FALL BELOW 66 AT ELM TONIGHT FOR FOG
TO DEVELOP, AND 69 IS THE FORECAST LOW.
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN TWIN TIERS THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING TO THE SE AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY IMPACT AVP IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....MAINLY VFR. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS BUT TERMINALS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS SET AT BGM, SYR AND AVP WITH HIGHS OF 91 AT BGM, 95
AT SYR AND AVP TODAY. PREVIOUS RECORDS ARE BELOW.
SYRACUSE: 93 DEGREES IN 1949 AND 1952, BINGHAMTON:
88 DEGREES IN 1975, AVOCA: 94 DEGREES IN 1908 AND 1923
BGM AND SYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD HIGHS
WEDNESDAY. AVP'S RECORD HIGH WEDNESDAY IS 95F SET IN 1943, WITH
A FORECAST HIGH OF 92F, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE RECORD.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ044-047-048.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
CLIMATE...
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