539
FXUS61 KBGM 251729
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
129 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TWIN TIERS. THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
1225 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NY AND ARE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER STEUBEN
COUNTY AS WELL. THE CLOUD COVER HASN'T QUITE SPREAD AS FAR EAST
AS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION, THOUGH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST WAS DOING WELL, THOUGH SOME SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS WERE NEEDED TO POPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
630 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MORNING TEMPS WERE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
220 AM UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM TONIGHT, WITH
WIDESPREAD 70S REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. SYRACUSE REMAINS THE
HOT SPOT AS THEY JUST FELL BELOW 80, NOW CURRENTLY AT 79
DEGREES. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES TONIGHT, WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS WARM.
TODAY WILL FINALLY SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS THE RIDGE
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT OVER OUR CWA, ALLOWING A COOL FRONT TO
DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 90 AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. THE TWIN
TIERS, CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE HOT SPOTS WILL BE IN LACKAWANNA,
LUZERNE, PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 95-102. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE COUNTIES UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TWIN TIERS AREA BY
THE MID AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A FINGER OF HIGH MOISTURE THAT WILL SPILL INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO NEPA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED, WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG ACROSS NEPA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE MARGINAL, WITH 20-25KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE
FOR STORMS TO INGEST. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH, WITH
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE COULD SEE STORMS FORM WITH
UPDRAFTS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST. THESE FACTORS HAVE LEAD TO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE TWIN TIERS BEING IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND MUCH OF THE TWIN TIERS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING IS LOW TO MEDIUM AS CAMS ARE
STILL UNSURE AS TO HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION WILL PLAY
OUT, WITH SOME, INCLUDING THE HRRR, SHOWING A CAP AROUND 15K
FEET WHICH WOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, HELPING TO KEEP A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
SW FLOW ACROSS PA MOVES OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS
ESE FLOW FROM THE HIGH BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WE ARE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. WE WILL SEE A NICE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S FOR MOST, WITH LOW 80S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
335 AM UPDATE:
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING TO AN END LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND THE TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS PUSHING THE FRONT WELL
NORTH OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS NOTED WITH
LOWERING POPS FOR THE AREA FOR NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
ALSO, WITH THE FRONT PULL FURTHER NORTH, WARMER SW FLOW DEVELOPS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, STUCK WITH NBM TEMPERATURES, BUT
COULD SEE HIGHS TICK UPWARD IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AND HIGHS
COULD END UP 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. STILL SOME TIME TO SORT OUT
THE DETAILS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A DRIER AND WARMER
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
345 AM UPDATE:
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. FRONTAL ZONE DIPS
SOUTHWARD AGAIN AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE GREATER ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY FOCUSED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POPPING UP AGAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
SOME GUIDANCE WAS INTRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AT RME AND SYR RIGHT
AROUND 17Z THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AT ELM AND AVP. THESE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR, MAYBE LOWER IF A HEAVY SHOWER PASSES
DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z FOR THE CNY TERMINALS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEN
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BUT SETTLE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....MAINLY VFR. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS BUT TERMINALS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS SET AT BGM, SYR AND AVP WITH HIGHS OF 91 AT BGM, 95
AT SYR AND AVP TODAY. PREVIOUS RECORDS ARE BELOW.
SYRACUSE: 93 DEGREES IN 1949 AND 1952, BINGHAMTON:
88 DEGREES IN 1975, AVOCA: 94 DEGREES IN 1908 AND 1923
BGM AND SYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD HIGHS
WEDNESDAY. AVP'S RECORD HIGH WEDNESDAY IS 95F SET IN 1943, WITH
A FORECAST HIGH OF 92F, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE RECORD.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ044-047-048.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...BTL/JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...BTL
CLIMATE...
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