619
FXUS61 KBGM 251832
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TWIN TIERS. THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
1225 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NY AND ARE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER STEUBEN
COUNTY AS WELL. THE CLOUD COVER HASN'T QUITE SPREAD AS FAR EAST
AS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION, THOUGH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST WAS DOING WELL, THOUGH SOME SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS WERE NEEDED TO POPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
630 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MORNING TEMPS WERE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
220 AM UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM TONIGHT, WITH
WIDESPREAD 70S REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. SYRACUSE REMAINS THE
HOT SPOT AS THEY JUST FELL BELOW 80, NOW CURRENTLY AT 79
DEGREES. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES TONIGHT, WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS WARM.
TODAY WILL FINALLY SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS THE RIDGE
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT OVER OUR CWA, ALLOWING A COOL FRONT TO
DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 90 AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. THE TWIN
TIERS, CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE HOT SPOTS WILL BE IN LACKAWANNA,
LUZERNE, PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 95-102. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE COUNTIES UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TWIN TIERS AREA BY
THE MID AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A FINGER OF HIGH MOISTURE THAT WILL SPILL INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO NEPA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED, WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG ACROSS NEPA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE MARGINAL, WITH 20-25KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE
FOR STORMS TO INGEST. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH, WITH
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE COULD SEE STORMS FORM WITH
UPDRAFTS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST. THESE FACTORS HAVE LEAD TO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE TWIN TIERS BEING IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND MUCH OF THE TWIN TIERS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING IS LOW TO MEDIUM AS CAMS ARE
STILL UNSURE AS TO HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION WILL PLAY
OUT, WITH SOME, INCLUDING THE HRRR, SHOWING A CAP AROUND 15K
FEET WHICH WOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, HELPING TO KEEP A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
SW FLOW ACROSS PA MOVES OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS
ESE FLOW FROM THE HIGH BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WE ARE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. WE WILL SEE A NICE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S FOR MOST, WITH LOW 80S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
230 PM UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION ON FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ADVECT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER
CHANCES. AS OF NOW MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE FRONT EXPANDS
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER POPS FOCUSING OVER OUR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 14 TO 16 DEGREES C. FOR NOW, STUCK WITH NBM
TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD SEE HIGHS TICK UPWARD IF FRONT EXPANDS
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS
ONLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DIP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOCUSED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM DESPITE CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
230 PM UPDATE...
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORIES, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING 17 TO 18 DEGREES C. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
SOME GUIDANCE WAS INTRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AT RME AND SYR RIGHT
AROUND 17Z THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AT ELM AND AVP. THESE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR, MAYBE LOWER IF A HEAVY SHOWER PASSES
DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z FOR THE CNY TERMINALS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEN
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BUT SETTLE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....MAINLY VFR. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS BUT TERMINALS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS SET AT BGM, SYR AND AVP WITH HIGHS OF 91 AT BGM, 95
AT SYR AND AVP TODAY. PREVIOUS RECORDS ARE BELOW.
SYRACUSE: 93 DEGREES IN 1949 AND 1952, BINGHAMTON:
88 DEGREES IN 1975, AVOCA: 94 DEGREES IN 1908 AND 1923
BGM AND SYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD HIGHS
WEDNESDAY. AVP'S RECORD HIGH WEDNESDAY IS 95F SET IN 1943, WITH
A FORECAST HIGH OF 92F, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE RECORD.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ044-047-048.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...BTL/JTC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BTL
CLIMATE...
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