200
FXUS61 KBGM 251855
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A BRIEF WARM UP THEN FOLLOWS TO START NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
255 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT
WEAK SHEAR OVER THE REGION. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERE STORMS TODAY
BUT A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS ARE 1.8 TO 2 INCHES.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY THE MORE EAST
THESE SHOWERS END UP AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FROM THIS
WEEKEND'S SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AS SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND 60S. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, SO PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE IT
RAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS MAY CLIP
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASES
AFTER SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE DRIER AIR LIFTS
NORTH OUT OF THE REGION A PASSING SHORTWAVE KICKS OFF ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS. LOOKING AT THE CAMS, THEY KEEP
CONDITIONS STABLE DUE TO A CAP IN PLACE. THIS DOES LEAD TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON IF THERE WOULD BE STRONG STORMS TOMORROW, BUT GIVEN
THAT NON-CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE HIGHER WITH THE INSTABILITY,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SPC DID EXPAND THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK UP THROUGH
CENTRAL PA AND CUT IT SHORT OF OUR REGION, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
FOR NOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. WPC HAS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
70S AND LOW 80S.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO
AN END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE FINALLY MOVES OUT AND
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
230 PM UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION ON FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ADVECT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER
CHANCES. AS OF NOW MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE FRONT EXPANDS
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER POPS FOCUSING OVER OUR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 14 TO 16 DEGREES C. FOR NOW, STUCK WITH NBM
TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD SEE HIGHS TICK UPWARD IF FRONT EXPANDS
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS
ONLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES ALONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DIP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOCUSED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM DESPITE CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
230 PM UPDATE...
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORIES, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING 17 TO 18 DEGREES C. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
SOME GUIDANCE WAS INTRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AT RME AND SYR RIGHT
AROUND 17Z THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AT ELM AND AVP. THESE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR, MAYBE LOWER IF A HEAVY SHOWER PASSES
DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z FOR THE CNY TERMINALS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEN
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BUT SETTLE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....MAINLY VFR. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS BUT TERMINALS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS SET AT BGM, SYR AND AVP WITH HIGHS OF 91 AT BGM, 95
AT SYR AND AVP TODAY. PREVIOUS RECORDS ARE BELOW.
SYRACUSE: 93 DEGREES IN 1949 AND 1952, BINGHAMTON:
88 DEGREES IN 1975, AVOCA: 94 DEGREES IN 1908 AND 1923
BGM AND SYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD HIGHS
WEDNESDAY. AVP'S RECORD HIGH WEDNESDAY IS 95F SET IN 1943, WITH
A FORECAST HIGH OF 92F, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE RECORD.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ044-047-048.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BTL
CLIMATE...
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