325
FXUS61 KBGM 291325
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
925 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY,
KEEPING THE AREA DRY. HEAT RETURNS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
CLOUDS STILL TAKING SOME ADDITIONAL TIME AS OF 9AM. HOWEVER,
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK DISCUSSED BELOW.
630 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES TO THE EAST WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
230 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CNY TONIGHT WITH A 5-10 DEGREE
DROP IN DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO COOLER. WE ARE SEEING SOME CLOUDS HANG AROUND AS
THERE IS STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION.
NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DRIER AIR THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE QUITE NICE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
MOST AND LOW 80S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VALLEY FOG TO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A WARM AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL US INTO
THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL, BUT SHOULD BE LOWER
THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK AS THIS AIRMASS WON'T HAVE A
CONNECTION TO THE GULF. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL STILL BE HOT ON
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 95. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
PARTS OF CNY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
250 AM UPDATE...
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE A
COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGHING
PATTERN, WITH ONE BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE 2ND SHORTWAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50KTS OVER THE
AREA FROM MID-MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS
WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. ONE THING THAT COULD HINDER THE
INSTABILITY IS CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FROM THE BROAD TROUGH
AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE BRINGING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS APPROACH 2 IN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-12K FEET AND MBE
VECTORS UNDER 15KTS.
IT WILL FEEL STICKY MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S, WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITING HEATING IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL MUCH NICER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
315 AM UPDATE...
SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH NW FLOW
PUSHING A COOL, DRY AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. THE 4TH OF JULY IS
TRENDING TOWARD ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY, BUT FLOW WILL SWITCH TO WSW WHICH
WILL BRING A WARMER AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS CAUSED BY FOG AT ELM AND AVP IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BY MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AT ALL TAF SITES. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE AT ELM WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS TAF SET. BGM/ITH/AVP MAY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE-
DAWN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...JTC
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