913
FXUS61 KBGM 291655
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY,
KEEPING THE AREA DRY. HEAT RETURNS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS STILL TAKING SOME ADDITIONAL TIME AS OF 9AM. HOWEVER,
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK DISCUSSED BELOW.
630 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES TO THE EAST WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
230 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CNY TONIGHT WITH A 5-10 DEGREE
DROP IN DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO COOLER. WE ARE SEEING SOME CLOUDS HANG AROUND AS
THERE IS STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION.
NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DRIER AIR THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE QUITE NICE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
MOST AND LOW 80S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VALLEY FOG TO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A WARM AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL US INTO
THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL, BUT SHOULD BE LOWER
THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK AS THIS AIRMASS WON'T HAVE A
CONNECTION TO THE GULF. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL STILL BE HOT ON
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 95. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
PARTS OF CNY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
1255 PM UPDATE...
A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY-TILTED,
HELPING TO PROGRESS A FEW SMALL DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GOING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT, CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF 40-50
KNOTS, AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. ONE THING WE'LL
BE MONITORING CLOSELY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1.75-2.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF
10-12K FEET AND MBE VECTORS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. ANY HEAVY SHOWER
OR STORM THAT PASSES THROUGH THAT SLOWS AND/OR TRAINS OVER AN
AREA COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE TUESDAY, FOR ALL INTENTS AND
PURPOSES, TO THE UPPERS 70S/LOW 80S, BUT IT MAY FEEL A LITTLE
STICKY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/MID 70S. AFTER THE PASSAGE, DEWPOINTS DECREASE INTO
THE 60S, AND SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY.
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH SLIGHT RIDGING SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY ON THE LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE SIDE, WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKY COVER. ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY, BUT WITH MUCH NICER AND MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
1255 PM UPDATE...
ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING A COOL,
DRY AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRENDING TOWARD
ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S AND SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND
INTO SATURDAY, BUT FLOW WILL SWITCH TO WSW WHICH WILL BRING A
WARMER AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS CAUSED BY FOG AT ELM AND AVP IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BY MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AT ALL TAF SITES. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE AT ELM WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS TAF SET. BGM/ITH/AVP MAY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE-
DAWN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC
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