361
FXUS61 KBGM 291811
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ENOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT,
SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN
THE LOW 60'S WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO EXIT THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY BOTH AT 925MB
AND THE SURFACE. THE LIKELY CAUSE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY THOUGH AS A CAP WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH VALUES
RATHER POOR IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS A RESULT EVEN WITH SOME
INSTABILITY THE POOR MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS NOW LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING A TOUCH IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING. THIS GETS HEAT
INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90-95 RANGE JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN CNY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. THE MAIN FOCUS
AGENT FOR LIFT LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. IF
WE SEE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOME LOCALIZED URBAN OR FLASH
FLOODING COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING AND VERY
HIGH PW VALUES FROM 1.5-2 INCHES. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL TO AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
1255 PM UPDATE...
A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY-TILTED,
HELPING TO PROGRESS A FEW SMALL DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GOING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT, CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF 40-50
KNOTS, AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. ONE THING WE'LL
BE MONITORING CLOSELY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1.75-2.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF
10-12K FEET AND MBE VECTORS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. ANY HEAVY SHOWER
OR STORM THAT PASSES THROUGH THAT SLOWS AND/OR TRAINS OVER AN
AREA COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE TUESDAY, FOR ALL INTENTS AND
PURPOSES, TO THE UPPERS 70S/LOW 80S, BUT IT MAY FEEL A LITTLE
STICKY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/MID 70S. AFTER THE PASSAGE, DEWPOINTS DECREASE INTO
THE 60S, AND SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY.
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH SLIGHT RIDGING SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY ON THE LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE SIDE, WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKY COVER. ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY, BUT WITH MUCH NICER AND MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
1255 PM UPDATE...
ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING A COOL,
DRY AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRENDING TOWARD
ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S AND SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND
INTO SATURDAY, BUT FLOW WILL SWITCH TO WSW WHICH WILL BRING A
WARMER AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CHANGES IN THE DIRECTION
OF LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE-
DAWN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MWG
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