160  
FXUS61 KBGM 292322  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
722 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES  
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
715 PM UPDATE...  
 
ADDED MORE FOG TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT AS FORECAST LOWS WITH THE  
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FALL BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEW POINT  
MINIMUMS. FOG SHOULD REMAIN TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL  
AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AS THEY DID NOT GET AS MUCH SUN TODAY WITH  
PERSISTENT CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
PREVIOUS FORECAST...  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHEAST  
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ENOUGH INFLUENCE  
FROM THE HIGH SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT,  
SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN  
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN  
THE LOW 60'S WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO EXIT THE REGION.  
 
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY BOTH AT 925MB  
AND THE SURFACE. THE LIKELY CAUSE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE PA AND  
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY THOUGH AS A CAP WILL BE SLOW TO  
ERODE. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH VALUES  
RATHER POOR IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS A RESULT EVEN WITH SOME  
INSTABILITY THE POOR MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH  
MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS NOW LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS  
LOWERING A TOUCH IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING. THIS GETS HEAT  
INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90-95 RANGE JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA IN CNY.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE  
EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. THE MAIN FOCUS  
AGENT FOR LIFT LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. IF  
WE SEE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOME LOCALIZED URBAN OR FLASH  
FLOODING COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING AND VERY  
HIGH PW VALUES FROM 1.5-2 INCHES. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES  
WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL TO AROUND 70.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
1255 PM UPDATE...  
 
A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY-TILTED,  
HELPING TO PROGRESS A FEW SMALL DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA  
TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GOING INTO  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN  
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT, CURRENT  
GUIDANCE HAS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF 40-50  
KNOTS, AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. ONE THING WE'LL  
BE MONITORING CLOSELY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH  
FLOODING. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1.75-2.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF  
10-12K FEET AND MBE VECTORS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. ANY HEAVY SHOWER  
OR STORM THAT PASSES THROUGH THAT SLOWS AND/OR TRAINS OVER AN  
AREA COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  
 
TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE TUESDAY, FOR ALL INTENTS AND  
PURPOSES, TO THE UPPERS 70S/LOW 80S, BUT IT MAY FEEL A LITTLE  
STICKY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE  
UPPER 60S/MID 70S. AFTER THE PASSAGE, DEWPOINTS DECREASE INTO  
THE 60S, AND SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY.  
 
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH SLIGHT RIDGING SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY ON THE LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE SIDE, WITH MAINLY  
CLEAR SKY COVER. ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO  
TUESDAY, BUT WITH MUCH NICER AND MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN  
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
1255 PM UPDATE...  
 
ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH  
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS  
TO THE REGION THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING A COOL,  
DRY AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRENDING TOWARD  
ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR, WITH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE MID 70S AND SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND  
INTO SATURDAY, BUT FLOW WILL SWITCH TO WSW WHICH WILL BRING A  
WARMER AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO  
THE 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 0Z TOMORROW. VALLEY FOG  
FORMS WITH IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE AT ELM AND NOW POTENTIALLY RME  
AS WELL. BGM AND ITH MAY ESCAPE THE FOG AS IT LOOKS MORE OF A  
LOW ELEVATION AND VALLEY FOG EVENT. AVP HAS A SMALL CHANCE BUT  
THE AIRPORT LIKELY WILL BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH ABOVE THE VALLEY TO  
NOT GET FOG.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, AS ANOTHER FRONTAL  
SYSTEM PASSES.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE-  
DAWN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.  
 
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE  
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... VFR.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MWG  
NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG  
SHORT TERM...KL  
LONG TERM...KL  
AVIATION...AJG  
 
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