229
FXUS61 KBGM 300611
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
930 PM UPDATE...
SLIGHTLY LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS UPPED
THE DEW POINTS WHILE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HILLS AS IT
LOOKS LIKE THE EVENING TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS THE COLDER AIR
DRAINING INTO THE VALLEYS. FOG WAS ALSO EXPANDED TO FILL MORE OF
THE VALLEYS IN THE MORNING AND LAST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
715 PM UPDATE...
ADDED MORE FOG TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT AS FORECAST LOWS WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FALL BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEW POINT
MINIMUMS. FOG SHOULD REMAIN TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL
AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AS THEY DID NOT GET AS MUCH SUN TODAY WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ENOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT,
SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN
THE LOW 60'S WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO EXIT THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY BOTH AT 925MB
AND THE SURFACE. THE LIKELY CAUSE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY THOUGH AS A CAP WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH VALUES
RATHER POOR IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS A RESULT EVEN WITH SOME
INSTABILITY THE POOR MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS NOW LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING A TOUCH IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING. THIS GETS HEAT
INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90-95 RANGE JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN CNY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. THE MAIN FOCUS
AGENT FOR LIFT LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. IF
WE SEE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOME LOCALIZED URBAN OR FLASH
FLOODING COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING AND VERY
HIGH PW VALUES FROM 1.5-2 INCHES. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL TO AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
1255 PM UPDATE...
A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY-TILTED,
HELPING TO PROGRESS A FEW SMALL DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GOING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT, CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF 40-50
KNOTS, AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. ONE THING WE'LL
BE MONITORING CLOSELY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1.75-2.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF
10-12K FEET AND MBE VECTORS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. ANY HEAVY SHOWER
OR STORM THAT PASSES THROUGH THAT SLOWS AND/OR TRAINS OVER AN
AREA COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE TUESDAY, FOR ALL INTENTS AND
PURPOSES, TO THE UPPERS 70S/LOW 80S, BUT IT MAY FEEL A LITTLE
STICKY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/MID 70S. AFTER THE PASSAGE, DEWPOINTS DECREASE INTO
THE 60S, AND SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY.
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH SLIGHT RIDGING SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY ON THE LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE SIDE, WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKY COVER. ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY, BUT WITH MUCH NICER AND MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
1255 PM UPDATE...
ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING A COOL,
DRY AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRENDING TOWARD
ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S AND SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND
INTO SATURDAY, BUT FLOW WILL SWITCH TO WSW WHICH WILL BRING A
WARMER AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA. TONIGHT, ELM AND RME HAVE A
CHANCE TO SEE FOG DEVELOP BUT IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK FORECAST.
AT ELM, HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. THIS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING
POTENTIAL AT ELM TONIGHT AND THUS MAKE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
CHANCES MORE MUDDY. BASED OF AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS, A TARGET TEMP
OF AROUND 56 DEGREES IS NEEDED TO GET FOG GOING. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE HOVERING AROUND 60-61 AND SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH WITH THE
CLOUDS OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. WE COULD SEE A QUICK TEMP
DROP AS THE CLOUDS EXIT AROUND 9Z, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOG AND
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IN FOG
PREVAILING IS LOW SO A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED TO COVER PERIODIC
IFR WITH THE PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
RME ALSO HAS A CHANCE FOR FOG BUT GUIDANCE WAS BACKING OFF IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS BOUNDARY WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE ARE OUT OF THE NW SO DOWNSLOPING INTO RME WILL OCCUR
WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP FOG FROM GETTING TOO THICK, WHICH MATCHES
GUIDANCE SLOWLY BACKING OFF IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS.
THIS EVENING, RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SW TO NE. CURRENTLY, AVP AND ELM
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING THUNDER SO MVFR PROB30 GROUPS
WERE INCLUDED IN THIS SET OF TAFS. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THESE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE-
DAWN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC
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