250
FXUS61 KBGM 300728
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
328 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS HOT WEATHER TODAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
245 AM UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
THINGS HEAT UP TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
AND FLOW SWITCHES TO SWERLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WARM, MORE HUMID AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHERN US, PUSHING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S TO 90. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S
FOR MANY OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL NOT BE HOT
ENOUGH FOR HEAT ADVISORIES, BUT IT WILL DEFINITELY BE
UNCOMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE LIFTING MECHANISM NEEDED TO
TAP INTO EXPECTED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, MOVING IN FROM SW TO NE. HREF SHOWS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 20-25KTS. THIS SUPPORTS SOME CLUSTERING OF STORMS
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT MEDIOCRE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER
6C SHOULD LIMIT GREATER ORGANIZATION. PWATS BETWEEN 1.7IN AND
2IN ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTING HEAVY WATER LOADING AND THUS
MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN SOME OF THE STRONGER PULSE STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP.
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, WE WILL SEE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE
LOOSE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES LAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL BE UNDER A BROAD TROUGH WITH WAA CONTINUING
TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY,
WITH LOWS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT AS WELL AS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING HOURS WILL
LIMIT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR DOES LOOK TO BE
GREATER THAN MONDAY, WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 40KTS POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE FINGER LAKES BY THE AFTERNOON. IF THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA STARTING AROUND 1PM AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS, AND
WE CAN GET SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING IN THE LATE MORNING TO PUSH
CAPE VALUES UP TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG, ISOLATED MULTI CELL
GROUPINGS TURNING INTO A LINEAR SEGMENT EAST OF I-81 WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS AS HIGH PWATS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY WATER LOADING AND
MICROBURST POTENTIAL. WE ARE STILL IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVERLAP IS STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
215 AM UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION AS IT EXITS.
WESTERLY FLOW SHIFTS NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA,
WHICH COULD HELP BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. MAINLY EXPECTING THE AREA TO
STAY DRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TEMPERATURES WILL GRACEFULLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
CLEAR SKIES WITH CALM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
215 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. COOLER AIR GETS ADVECTED INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES 6 TO 7 DEGREES
C LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH
CLEARING WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDING. OVERALL A PLEASANT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
AGAIN BE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST
BRINGING WARMER SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA. TONIGHT, ELM AND RME HAVE A
CHANCE TO SEE FOG DEVELOP BUT IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK FORECAST.
AT ELM, HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. THIS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING
POTENTIAL AT ELM TONIGHT AND THUS MAKE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
CHANCES MORE MUDDY. BASED OF AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS, A TARGET TEMP
OF AROUND 56 DEGREES IS NEEDED TO GET FOG GOING. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE HOVERING AROUND 60-61 AND SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH WITH THE
CLOUDS OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. WE COULD SEE A QUICK TEMP
DROP AS THE CLOUDS EXIT AROUND 9Z, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOG AND
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IN FOG
PREVAILING IS LOW SO A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED TO COVER PERIODIC
IFR WITH THE PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
RME ALSO HAS A CHANCE FOR FOG BUT GUIDANCE WAS BACKING OFF IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS BOUNDARY WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE ARE OUT OF THE NW SO DOWNSLOPING INTO RME WILL OCCUR
WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP FOG FROM GETTING TOO THICK, WHICH MATCHES
GUIDANCE SLOWLY BACKING OFF IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS.
THIS EVENING, RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SW TO NE. CURRENTLY, AVP AND ELM
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING THUNDER SO MVFR PROB30 GROUPS
WERE INCLUDED IN THIS SET OF TAFS. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THESE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE-
DAWN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC
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