994
FXUS61 KBGM 301853
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
245 PM UPDATE...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN ON RADAR CURRENTLY, WITH STORM INITIATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ABUNDANCE OF CAPE, 1000-2000 J/KG,
IS READILY AVAILABLE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. WHAT'S
LACKING FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE AT OR
BELOW 6 C/KM, AND NO 0-6 BULK SHEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CLASSIC LOW-LEVEL MINOR INVERTED-V SHAPE, WHERE DOWNBURSTS
CAUSING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS, AND MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT OVERNIGHT MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME TROUGH APPROACHES EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY, AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE SEE
SIMILAR CAPE VALUES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS FROM THESE STORMS CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH
WILL BE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE HEADING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BIT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL SLATED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
BRINGING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL GET INTO THE LOW 80'S FOR MOST OF THE REGION GIVEN
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. CLOUDS THEN SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
LOOKS PRESENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE COVERAGE MORE OF A
SCATTERED VARIETY. HOWEVER, MODELED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER STEEP IN THE MID-AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS. THESE FACTORS MAY AID IN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
GENERATING GUSTY WINDS. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 80 THURSDAY AFTER STARTING
OUT IN THE 60'S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL MODELED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS. ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70'S BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND SATURDAY. A FAIRLY DECENT
SPREAD WITH TIMING OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXISTS WITHIN ENSEMBLE DATA
CURRENTLY WITH EITHER A SUNDAY OR MONDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. RENEWED
HEAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SUNDAY AND INCREASED HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BOTH
DAYS AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER MONDAY DUE
TO CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA
STARTING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS FOR STORMS HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT RME, WHERE CHANCES ARE LESS
LIKELY. FUEL ALT TO IFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME HEAVY RAIN DURING THE EVENING TO
PRIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MOISTURE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IFR ANYWHERE YET.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE-
DAWN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page