071  
FXUS61 KBGM 010603  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
203 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE  
AREA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION  
TOMORROW, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,  
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
245 PM UPDATE...  
 
A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING A SHORTWAVE  
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE  
SEEN ON RADAR CURRENTLY, WITH STORM INITIATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ABUNDANCE OF CAPE, 1000-2000 J/KG,  
IS READILY AVAILABLE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. WHAT'S  
LACKING FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE AT OR  
BELOW 6 C/KM, AND NO 0-6 BULK SHEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A  
CLASSIC LOW-LEVEL MINOR INVERTED-V SHAPE, WHERE DOWNBURSTS  
CAUSING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT  
FROM ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS, AND MAINLY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT OVERNIGHT MONDAY. A FRONTAL  
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME TROUGH APPROACHES EARLY MORNING  
TUESDAY, AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE SEE  
SIMILAR CAPE VALUES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AS  
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING  
WINDS FROM THESE STORMS CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH  
WILL BE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
CONDITIONS IMPROVE HEADING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND AS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES  
COOL A LITTLE BIT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE  
LOW TO MID 80S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
120 AM UPDATE...  
 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS  
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS  
AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS  
SHORTWAVE WILL PICK UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES TO KICK  
OFF SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS SHORTWAVE, DIVING IN  
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND  
KICKING OFF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF  
THE FRONT REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING  
EITHER A MID AFTERNOON OR EVENING PASSAGE. IF WE CAN GET A FEW  
FEATURES TO LINE UP; INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL  
PASSAGE COMBINED WITH AROUND 50KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR PROVIDED  
BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA, WE COULD SEE  
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING  
IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF  
THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THIS TIME, WITH THE  
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTH,  
PWATS LOOK TO BE LOW AND THUS HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH  
FLOODING LOOKS TO NOT BE AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL  
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT CURRENTLY THEY  
LOOK TO BE SEASONAL, CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.  
 
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE  
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S AND CLEAR SKIES  
ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
THE 4TH OF JULY IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE A REMARKABLE DAY WITH  
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE DRY NORTHERN AIRMASS AND HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED. FIREWORKS  
WEATHER DURING THE EVENING OF THE 4TH WILL REMAIN GREAT AS TEMPS  
FALL INTO THE LOW 70S TO MID 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE  
REGION.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
145 AM UPDATE...  
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TO  
HOT TEMPS RETURNING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 80S WILL CLIMB TO  
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP US DRY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ITS EVOLUTION  
ON SUNDAY AS RAIN COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON  
IF THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THOUGH THE  
AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A  
TROUGH MOVES IN. TIMING STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS STILL  
UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE  
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US AND GREAT LAKES  
DIFFERENTLY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION ALTHOUGH A FEW  
MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER RME/SYR EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR/FUEL ALT OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AT ELM AND RECENT RAINFALL INCREASES THE CONCERN  
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS CLOUD COVER MAY  
HOLD OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO BOUNCE  
IF SOME CLEARING MOVES IN. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW MORNING AT  
ALL SITES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BGM AND AVP  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, AS ANOTHER FRONTAL  
SYSTEM PASSES.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE-  
DAWN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.  
 
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE  
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR.  
 
 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...KL  
NEAR TERM...KL  
SHORT TERM...JTC  
LONG TERM...JTC  
AVIATION...ES  
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