587
FXUS61 KBGM 011026
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
626 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MOVES IN THURSDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES BACK IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
630 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EAST
OF I-81. UPDATED POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND CAM GUIDANCE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
300 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS EAST. A BREAK IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTERLY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION. SHOWERS BEGIN TO FILL IN BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. CAMS SUGGEST THE MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST PA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS REGION LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE LOOKING SOME WHAT FAVORABLE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL MAINLY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WE GET EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
MODELS SHOW CAPE VALUES RANGE 1,200 TO 2,000 J/KG ALONG WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF
CELLS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR ENTIRE REGION AND WPC MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR REGION. A SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF LUZERNE COUNTY.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST PA AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS REGION OF NY AS THE FRONT EXITS EAST. OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT HAVE
SEEN RECENT RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
120 AM UPDATE...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PICK UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES TO KICK
OFF SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS SHORTWAVE, DIVING IN
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND
KICKING OFF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF
THE FRONT REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING
EITHER A MID AFTERNOON OR EVENING PASSAGE. IF WE CAN GET A FEW
FEATURES TO LINE UP; INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL
PASSAGE COMBINED WITH AROUND 50KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR PROVIDED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA, WE COULD SEE
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THIS TIME, WITH THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTH,
PWATS LOOK TO BE LOW AND THUS HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING LOOKS TO NOT BE AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT CURRENTLY THEY
LOOK TO BE SEASONAL, CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA.
THE 4TH OF JULY IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE A REMARKABLE DAY WITH
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE DRY NORTHERN AIRMASS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED. FIREWORKS
WEATHER DURING THE EVENING OF THE 4TH WILL REMAIN GREAT AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE LOW 70S TO MID 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
145 AM UPDATE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TO
HOT TEMPS RETURNING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 80S WILL CLIMB TO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP US DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ITS EVOLUTION
ON SUNDAY AS RAIN COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
IF THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THOUGH THE
AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH MOVES IN. TIMING STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US AND GREAT LAKES
DIFFERENTLY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR TO FUEL ALT CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VFR WILL HOLD FOR MOST OF THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED TO ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT TIMING AND THE EXACT IMPACTS OF THESE STORMS, WILL
BE REASSESSED IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE-
DAWN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...ES
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