507
FXUS61 KBGM 011720
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
120 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING AN
END TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A
PLEASANT DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AFD UPDATES ON A REGULAR THREE HOURLY INTERVAL WILL NO LONGER
OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE AFD WILL STILL BE UPDATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING
AND MID AFTERNOON PACKAGES AND AS METEOROLOGICALLY NEEDED.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THAT MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. A MUDDLED PICTURE IN TERMS IF ANYTHING CAN BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. CAPE IS SUFFICIENT BUT LAPSE RATES ARE VERY POOR AS
OF THIS WRITING. SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS IS
FAIRLY LOW WITH THE BEST ENVIRONMENT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION.
COOLER AND DRIER ADVECTS IN TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR QUICK CLEARING.
EVENTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THE DRIER AIRMASS COMING IN
LOOKS TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY RIVER FOG AROUND
SUNRISE. AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE LOW 60'S HIGHS LOOK TO END
UP IN THE LOW TO MID 80'S. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT STARTS TO
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TIMING IS CENTERED
ON THURSDAY. LOWS LOOK SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. NOT MUCH HAS
CHANGED REGARDING THE MODELED ENVIRONMENT. CAPE VALUES NEAR
1,000 J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY MID-
LEVELS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A REINFORCING COOL SHOT COMING THROUGH
WITH LOWS IN THE 50'S AND 60'S. THE FORTH OF JULY STILL LOOKS
TO BE A DRY ONE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ONE MORE DRY DAY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY OVER THE REGION UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION SUNDAY RESULTING IN A WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE WITH WARMER HIGHS GETTING CLOSE
TO 90 BY SUNDAY. THE FRONT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY MONDAY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. WITH THE ADDED
TOUCH OF HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CNY LOOK TO BE AROUND 95
DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR. BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 18-21Z AT KELM,KITH AND KBGM AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT
AVP. OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS FOR NOW. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT WHICH LIMITS THE FOG POTENTIAL NEAR SUNRISE
WITH POTENTIAL ONLY AT KELM FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE- DAWN VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MWG
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