084
FXUS61 KBGM 020635
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
235 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING WONDERFUL WEATHER
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
200 AM FORECAST...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S SO IT WILL FEEL
MUCH NICER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENS AND A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THE SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A A STRONG RIBBON OF 40-50KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS.
INSTABILITY REMAINS MUDDLED AS MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD
LIMIT CAPE DEVELOPMENT, WITH CAMS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES
BETWEEN 800 AND 2000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 5.5C
AND 6.5C MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THEIR
LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA, WHILE OTHERS HAVE THEM
ACROSS THE EAST. IF WE CAN GET CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG, THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. BECAUSE THE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS UNCLEAR, SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. NOT MUCH HAS
CHANGED REGARDING THE MODELED ENVIRONMENT. CAPE VALUES NEAR
1,000 J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY MID-
LEVELS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A REINFORCING COOL SHOT COMING THROUGH
WITH LOWS IN THE 50'S AND 60'S. THE FORTH OF JULY STILL LOOKS
TO BE A DRY ONE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ONE MORE DRY DAY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY OVER THE REGION UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION SUNDAY RESULTING IN A WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE WITH WARMER HIGHS GETTING CLOSE
TO 90 BY SUNDAY. THE FRONT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY MONDAY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. WITH THE ADDED
TOUCH OF HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CNY LOOK TO BE AROUND 95
DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ELM AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 13Z AT THE TERMINAL. ITH AND
RME MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS RAIN PASSED THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH
DEVELOPMENT, BUT GIVEN THE RAIN, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN, PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE- DAWN VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
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