421
FXUS61 KBGM 020643
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING WONDERFUL WEATHER
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
200 AM FORECAST...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S SO IT WILL FEEL
MUCH NICER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENS AND A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THE SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A A STRONG RIBBON OF 40-50KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS.
INSTABILITY REMAINS MUDDLED AS MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD
LIMIT CAPE DEVELOPMENT, WITH CAMS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES
BETWEEN 800 AND 2000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 5.5C
AND 6.5C MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THEIR
LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA, WHILE OTHERS HAVE THEM
ACROSS THE EAST. IF WE CAN GET CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG, THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. BECAUSE THE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS UNCLEAR, SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
240 AM UPDATE...
COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE
4TH OF JULY WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AS NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH A FEW
SPOTS POTENTIALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
240 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GFS HAS SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE RIDGE, BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO
MATERIALIZE. THIS MAY MANIFEST IN SOME CLOUDS OVERHEAD, BUT OVERALL
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW ON TUESDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ELM AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 13Z AT THE TERMINAL. ITH AND
RME MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS RAIN PASSED THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH
DEVELOPMENT, BUT GIVEN THE RAIN, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN, PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT PRE- DAWN VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ANY SITE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page