119
FXUS61 KBGM 021722
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
122 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING WONDERFUL WEATHER
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
200 AM FORECAST...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S TODAY. DEWPOINT VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S, SO IT
WILL FEEL MUCH NICER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENS AND A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THE SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A STRONG RIBBON OF 40-50KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MOVES
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. INSTABILITY
REMAINS MUDDLED AS MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD LIMIT CAPE
DEVELOPMENT, WITH CAMS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES BETWEEN
800 AND 2000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 5.5C AND 6.5C
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THEIR LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THEM ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA, WHILE OTHERS HAVE THEM ACROSS THE
EAST. IF WE CAN GET CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG, THE STRONG SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. BECAUSE THE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT, BUT TIMING
AND LOCATION REMAINS UNCLEAR, SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
240 AM UPDATE...
COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE
4TH OF JULY WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AS NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH A FEW
SPOTS POTENTIALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
240 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GFS HAS SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE RIDGE, BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO
MATERIALIZE. THIS MAY MANIFEST IN SOME CLOUDS OVERHEAD, BUT OVERALL
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW ON TUESDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE'S A
CHANCE FOR VALLEY FOG TO INTRUDE AT ELM AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME IN INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR SYR AND RME,
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND IN THE MORNING, BUT
AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. STORMS WILL START TO
BLOSSOM AROUND NOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND HEAD SE
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW, THERE IS A CHANCE A STORM GETS INTO
ITH BEFORE 18Z TOMORROW, BUT FURTHER SOUTH, STORMS WILL LIKELY
PUSH THROUGH AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ITH ON SOUTHWARD.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MPK
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