624
FXUS61 KBGM 021837
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
237 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING WONDERFUL WEATHER
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
230 PM FORECAST...
GORGEOUS DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LOW HUMIDITY.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA. UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED SOME WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TOMORROW WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO NE PA, SHOULD SEE
STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO ABOUT 1500
J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG RIBBON OF 40-50KT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR ALSO MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE TWIN
TIERS. CAMS ARE NOW FOCUSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO NE PA. SPC
HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK ACROSS OUR ENTIRE WESTERN CWA AND
HAS NOW INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
BEAUTIFUL 4TH OF JULY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
230 PM UPDATE...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON THE 4TH OF
JULY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. AROUND THE TIME OF FIREWORK DISPLAYS FRIDAY
EVENING (9/10 PM), TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH A FEW
SPOTS POTENTIALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
235 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE, BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY DRY ALOFT, SO LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS, BUT COULD
SEE SOME FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THAT IS WELL
CAPPED. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE UNDER SW FLOW. PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED, AND WITH HUMIDITY CONTINUING
TO INCREASE, THERE COULD BE SOME URBAN AREAS THAT APPROACH OR
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (HI GREATER OR EQUAL TO 95F IN NY,
100F IN PA). STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW ON TUESDAY BRINGING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE'S A
CHANCE FOR VALLEY FOG TO INTRUDE AT ELM AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME IN INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR SYR AND RME,
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND IN THE MORNING, BUT
AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. STORMS WILL START TO
BLOSSOM AROUND NOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND HEAD SE
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW, THERE IS A CHANCE A STORM GETS INTO
ITH BEFORE 18Z TOMORROW, BUT FURTHER SOUTH, STORMS WILL LIKELY
PUSH THROUGH AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON... MAINLY VFR, A BRIEF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ITH ON SOUTHWARD.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES/MPK
LONG TERM...ES/MPK
AVIATION...MPK
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