979
FXUS61 KBGM 040610
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
210 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING,
BRINGING WONDERFUL WEATHER FOR THE 4TH OF JULY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
QUIET, CALM AND COOL TONIGHT FOLLOWING AN AFTERNOON OF
DESTRUCTIVE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 50S.
IT WILL BE A WEATHER DAY FOR THE BOOKS FOR 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES. THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW, KEEPING
CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW 80S MAY POP UP IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA, BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S.
FIREWORKS WEATHER IN THE EVENING WILL BE CLEAR AND CRISP, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S AFTER SUNSET DUE
TO VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. IF ENJOYING AN OUTDOOR FIREWORKS
SHOW, A LIGHT JACKET MAY BE A GOOD IDEA.
OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR AND "COLD" FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MOST, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING UPPER 40S.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF WARM WEATHER AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES MOVE EASTWARD AND WARM AIR FROM THE CENTRAL US
SPILLS INTO THE REGION. WINDS BECOME MORE WSW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
1230 PM UPDATE...
STUCK WITH NBM FORECAST WITH NO CHANGES AND HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE TO SEE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (HI>= 95F) IN NY URBAN AREAS ON SUNDAY, BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN PA CRITERIA (HI>=100F).
305 AM UPDATE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, WITH SUNNY SKIES,
LOW TO MODERATE HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NO CHANGES FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BE MORE
HUMID AND MUGGY, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BRING HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES REACH 579DM AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES JUMP UP TO +19C. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON SUNDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AREAWIDE.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TO BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOW/MID 90S IN THE
VALLEYS. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GET CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE
COMING DAYS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED T'STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST...BUT OVERALL LIKELY STAYING PRECIPITATION
FREE, BUT HUMID AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
1230 PM UPDATE...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND
STUCK WITH NBM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAT COULD BE AN ISSUE ON
MONDAY, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD LIMIT HEATING. THOSE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THAT
FRONT, MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS WITH TIMING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, NBM BRINGS IN
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS IF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
DELAYED OR LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
305 AM UPDATE
A RATHER ACTIVE SUMMER WEATHER PATTER IS SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSED THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. DEEP LAYER, 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MODEST, BUT COULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE,
AS MLCAPE REACHES 800-1500 J/KG.
THE HEAT STILL REMAINS ON MONDAY, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE TO
ABOUT +20C ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID-80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE HIGH IN THE MID-
60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING THE HEAT INDEX TO
THE UPPER 80S TO MID-90S...AND PERHAPS EVEN 95 TO 100 IN THE WYOMING
VALLEY REGION.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY STALL OR WASHOUT NEAR THE
TWIN TIERS FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. DEW
POINTS DON'T FALL VERY MUCH AT ALL, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES LOWER AS LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE HOLD. PERHAPS A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BINGHAMTON OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH
WARM AND HUMID TYPICAL MID SUMMER CONDITIONS. THERE IS INCREASING
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND,
DECIDED TO KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE NBM ENSEMBLE
WEIGHTED GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY, WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY, JUST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. FOG IS FILLING
INTO THE VALLEYS OF NEPA, THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
CATSKILLS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FOG MOVING INTO THE WYOMING
VALLEY IN NEPA, BUT THE WIND FIELD SHOULD KEEP FOG AND
RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KAVP.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/KL/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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