719
FXUS61 KBGM 040622
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
222 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING,
BRINGING WONDERFUL WEATHER FOR THE 4TH OF JULY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
QUIET, CALM AND COOL TONIGHT FOLLOWING AN AFTERNOON OF
DESTRUCTIVE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 50S.
IT WILL BE A WEATHER DAY FOR THE BOOKS FOR 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES. THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW, KEEPING
CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW 80S MAY POP UP IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA, BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S.
FIREWORKS WEATHER IN THE EVENING WILL BE CLEAR AND CRISP, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S AFTER SUNSET DUE
TO VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. IF ENJOYING AN OUTDOOR FIREWORKS
SHOW, A LIGHT JACKET MAY BE A GOOD IDEA.
OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR AND "COLD" FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MOST, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING UPPER 40S.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF WARM WEATHER AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES MOVE EASTWARD AND WARM AIR FROM THE CENTRAL US
SPILLS INTO THE REGION. WINDS BECOME MORE WSW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
215 AM UPDATE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA...AND BUILDING 500MB
HEIGHTS. IT WILL BE MILD AND A LITTLE HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD BY SUNDAY, AS THE
OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH PUMPS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AREAWIDE. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S THE HEAT INDEX WILL FEEL SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN FACT THE MAX HEAT INDEX STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES, CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER,
SYRACUSE METRO AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THERE IS STILL TIME TO WAIT ON
ANY HEAT HEADLINES, AS CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS INCREASES. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DIP
DOWN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE.
MID-80S TO LOWER 90S. A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG, 25-30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ELEVATED
PWATS NEAR 2" TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE, HEAVY
RAINFALL NOTED FROM WPC OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECTED MAINLY CLOUDY
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS 65 TO 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
215 AM UPDATE
A FAIRLY TYPICAL MID SUMMER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR NEXT
WEEK. A LINGERING WEAK WAVE WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR POP UP SHOWERS
AND T'STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE, BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH. A ZONAL, TO BROADLY
CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED, POP UP T'STORMS WEDNESDAY
PM...EXCEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY, WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TUESDAY'S
FORECAST NOTED ABOVE. STILL SOMEWHAT HUMID, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OR LOW UNDERCUTTING
THE REGION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. THIS WILL MEAN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HERE...WITH ELEVATED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES (45-60%) EACH DAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-60S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. FOG IS FILLING
INTO THE VALLEYS OF NEPA, THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
CATSKILLS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FOG MOVING INTO THE WYOMING
VALLEY IN NEPA, BUT THE WIND FIELD SHOULD KEEP FOG AND
RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KAVP.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page