621
FXUS61 KBGM 050606
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
IT WILL MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE,
REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BY SUNDAY. A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
2 AM UPDATE
STARTING OFF COOL THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG, AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. THE REST OF TODAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AROUND THE OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER STEUBEN COUNTY, AND THE
WEST-CENTRAL FINGER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD DRIFT EAST AROUND 20 MPH. MLCAPE WILL
BE RATHER HIGH BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG, BUT SHEAR WILL BE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON, ONLY AROUND 15-20 KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER; SO WHILE
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ANYONE PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS,
AND ESPECIALLY THOSE ON OR NEAR LAKES SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE, HAVE A PLAN AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. NOT ALL CAMS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY, SO CAPPED POPS BETWEEN
20-35%, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING IN THE HORNELL, PENN YAN AND
GENEVA AREAS...THE ISOLATED STORMS COULD IMPACT KEUKA, SENECA
AND PERHAPS EVEN CAYUGA LAKE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID-60S IT WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY HUMID OUT THERE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE FINGER LAKES.
THE MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE, AROUND 10% FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS TO MOHAWK
VALLEY AREA...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, HOT AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-60S TO AROUND 70 TO
PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED HEAT INDICES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER, SYRACUSE METRO AND MOHAWK VALLEY TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES JUST YET, TO
ALLOW FOR GUIDANCE TO BETTER HONE IN ON TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND
HEAT INDICES. ONCE OR IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE HEAT
ADVISORIES WOULD THEN BE ISSUED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
HEAT IN THE HWO FOR MESSAGING AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
IT WILL BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID SECOND HALF TO THE WEEKEND
SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S. COMBINE THE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S, "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S, AND HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS OF
CNY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S AND LOW 70S.
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LEADING TO THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE, AND 20-30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. PWATS ALSO RANGE FROM
1.50-2.00 INCHES, SO A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER
THIS MORNING, A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NOTED IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY WPC OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE STALLING BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BEFORE A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY REMAIN WELL INTO THE 80S
AND WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES LOWER A LITTLE BIT, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH ELM
POTENTIALLY SEEING FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE (9-11Z). THE CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURES AT ELM IS AROUND 50-51F BASED ON YESTERDAY'S
OBSERVATIONS. IT IS ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO THIS TEMPERATURE AS
OF 06Z...BUT BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE PREVENTING FOG FORMATION AT
THIS TIME. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM ELM
BY 7/8Z...AND AFTER SKIES CLEAR OUT IS WHEN THE FOG SHOULD FORM.
ONLY HAVE AN IFR TEMPO IN NOW FOR THE PERIOD THAT FOG COULD
OCCUR IN BUT DID NOT BRING THE TAF TO MINS DUE TO LOWER THAN
USUAL CONFIDENCE.
TOMORROW IS ANOTHER CLEAR DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND IMPACT ELM OR ITH
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS 20-24Z...BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE WAS
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...AJG/MJM
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