450
FXUS61 KBGM 050701
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
301 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
IT WILL MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE,
REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BY SUNDAY. A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
2 AM UPDATE
STARTING OFF COOL THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG, AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. THE REST OF TODAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AROUND THE OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER STEUBEN COUNTY, AND THE
WEST-CENTRAL FINGER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD DRIFT EAST AROUND 20 MPH. MLCAPE WILL
BE RATHER HIGH BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG, BUT SHEAR WILL BE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON, ONLY AROUND 15-20 KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER; SO WHILE
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ANYONE PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS,
AND ESPECIALLY THOSE ON OR NEAR LAKES SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE, HAVE A PLAN AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. NOT ALL CAMS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY, SO CAPPED POPS BETWEEN
20-35%, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING IN THE HORNELL, PENN YAN AND
GENEVA AREAS...THE ISOLATED STORMS COULD IMPACT KEUKA, SENECA
AND PERHAPS EVEN CAYUGA LAKE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID-60S IT WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY HUMID OUT THERE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE FINGER LAKES.
THE MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE, AROUND 10% FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS TO MOHAWK
VALLEY AREA...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, HOT AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-60S TO AROUND 70 TO
PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED HEAT INDICES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER, SYRACUSE METRO AND MOHAWK VALLEY TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES JUST YET, TO
ALLOW FOR GUIDANCE TO BETTER HONE IN ON TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND
HEAT INDICES. ONCE OR IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE HEAT
ADVISORIES WOULD THEN BE ISSUED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
HEAT IN THE HWO FOR MESSAGING AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
215 AM FORECAST...
MONDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN AS WE ARE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A PLUME OF WARM, HUMID AIR
RIDING THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT OF THIS
HEAT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE ENE, RIDING THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THIS
ACTION WILL PUSH A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25KTS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SOME
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. MBE VECTORS ARE QUITE LOW AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT. THIS, COMBINED WITH PWATS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND APPROACHING 2IN ACROSS THE CWA
COULD GENERATE SLOW MOVING, HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
THAT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS SOME GUIDANCE IS QUICKER TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH THAN OTHERS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SE AS ITS DEVELOPMENT WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
ON TUESDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA,
POSSIBLY STILL HANGING AROUND JUST SOUTH OF HAZLETON. TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES
INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE
CATSKILLS INTO NEPA, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL
POSITIONING AND PATH OF THE LOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
245 AM FORECAST...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE PRESENT MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE PATTERN, KEEPING
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE.
WEDNESDAY HAS BEEN PROGGED AS SOMEWHAT DRY, BUT TRENDS ARE
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.
MORE SHORTWAVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH ELM
POTENTIALLY SEEING FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE (9-11Z). THE CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURES AT ELM IS AROUND 50-51F BASED ON YESTERDAY'S
OBSERVATIONS. IT IS ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO THIS TEMPERATURE AS
OF 06Z...BUT BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE PREVENTING FOG FORMATION AT
THIS TIME. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM ELM
BY 7/8Z...AND AFTER SKIES CLEAR OUT IS WHEN THE FOG SHOULD FORM.
ONLY HAVE AN IFR TEMPO IN NOW FOR THE PERIOD THAT FOG COULD
OCCUR IN BUT DID NOT BRING THE TAF TO MINS DUE TO LOWER THAN
USUAL CONFIDENCE.
TOMORROW IS ANOTHER CLEAR DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND IMPACT ELM OR ITH
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS 20-24Z...BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE WAS
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG/MJM
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