129
FXUS61 KBGM 051800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
IT WILL MAINLY DRY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH TEMPERATURES ON
THE RISE, REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW INTO
MONDAY. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
200 PM UPDATE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. TODAY, MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN WESTERN NY AND NORTH CENTRAL PA INDICATING SOME WEAKER
CAPPING. THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUES ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NYSM PROFILER DATA
SHOWING OVER 1.3 INCH VALUES ALREADY OVER FAR SW NY AND BUF'S
12Z SOUNDING WAS AT 1.4 INCHES. THIS IS INLINE WITH WHAT MODELS
HAVE FOR THIS MORNING WITH THE PWAT INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES WEST OF I-81 BY 5 PM. WIND VECTORS AT THE SURFACE AND 500
MB ARE NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING LUCKILY BUT STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE OVER 10,000 FEET.
RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME SO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN
WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS. DEW POINTS RISE BACK UP TO AROUND 70
BY TOMORROW MORNING AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN, TEMPERATURES RISE
BACK INTO THE 90S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO AREAS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN,
WILL HAVE SOME DRIER AIR MIX IN DURING PEAK HEATING HELPING TO
ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE MUGGINESS. FORE AREAS ALONG I-90 IN THE
LAKE PLAIN, WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES AND MARSHES WILL HELP BOOST
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AND KEEP THEM ELEVATED DESPITE THE DRY AIR
TRYING TO MIX IN. HEAT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR ONONDAGA
THROUGH SENECA COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
200 PM FORECAST...
THE SHORT TERM REMAINS HOT AND MUGGY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN. TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS LOOKING TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY AND THE REMNANTS SLOWLY
DRIFT INLAND INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THAT MODELS TEND TO UNDER DO THE
LATENT HEAT RELEASE IN THESE SMALLER TROPICAL SYSTEMS, AN
INCOMING TROUGH WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS STRENGTHENED. LOOKING AT PWAT FIELDS IN MODELS AND ENSEMBLES,
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
CHANTAL WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHEAST. RIGHT NOW IT IS
LOOKING CLOSE WITH TIMING ON ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT BUT THERE IS CONCERN THAT AS THE TROUGH SLOWS DOWN, ODDS
WILL BE BETTER THAT THE WIDESPREAD >2.0 INCH PWAT ARRIVES IN
TIME. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS WILL ALSO BE ALIGNED WITH THE
FRONT MOVING IN WITH THE THROUGH WHICH WOULD FAVOR TRAINING OF
STORMS AND BACK BUILDING. LOCATION OF HEAVY RAIN IS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO THE RAINFALL BEING CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN BUT 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 3 HOURS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN OUR REGION
IF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAIN, WIND SHEAR IS ALSO ELEVATED, WITH ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF 0-6
KM SHEAR BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS AND ENSEMBLE MIXED LAYER CAPE
UP BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT.
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY IF THE FRONT
STALLS OR SLOWS TO A CRAWL WHICH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
STARTING TO TREND TOWARDS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS AREAS
THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS ON MONDAY COULD SEE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
200 PM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY CONTINUING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MID WEEK AND WITH STILL SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH, REMAINING AROUND 20 TO 35 KNOTS SO
THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE GEFS AND EPS
ENSEMBLE 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE BOTH HINTING AT GREATER ODDS OF
RIDGING. DESPITE THE RIDGING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE SO INSTABILITY WILL BUILD EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ELM MAY HAVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP NEAR THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BUT THE BETTER CHANCES
REMAIN WEST SO NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
TAF BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF NECESSARY. IF IT DOES RAIN AT
ELM THIS AFTERNOON, THEN FOG WOULD BE LIKELY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ016>018.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG/JTC
LONG TERM...AJG/JTC
AVIATION...AJG
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