603
FXUS61 KBGM 111903
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
OTHERWISE DRY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. FRONTAL SYSTEM
BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
305 PM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE VIA SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ADVECT SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOWER TODAY AS PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE, MLCAPE VALUES ARE UP TO 1000 J/KG, BUT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
IS WEAK. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR IN PLACE WHICH MAY HINDER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES. REGARDLESS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS, THEREFORE SPC KEEPS OUR REGION UNDER GENERAL
THUNDER. CAMS SHOW SHOWERS POPPING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EXPANDING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER REGION OF NY.
PWATS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7, BUT A COUPLE OF CELLS MAY BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED PONDING. WPC HAS THE SOUTH-
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, WHICH IS REASONABLE AS SOILS ARE QUITE SATURATED IN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
WHICH SETS UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
RIDGE PEAKS OVER OUR REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A SIMILAR SET UP TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
SPOTS IN THE LOW 90S. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAD ADVISORY CRITERIA
TO BE REACHED OVER THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AS SHOWERS COULD HINDER THAT
OUTCOME. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY, CAPE VALUES MAY
REACH 1,200 J/KG, BUT 0-6 KM SHEAR IS WEAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
ALSO VERY DRY, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR STRONG STORMS,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FEW. SPC AGAIN PLACES OUR REGION
IN GENERAL THUNDER. CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
240 PM UPDATE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY,
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ON SUNDAY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND IT WILL BE VERY HUMID AS WELL, RAISING
APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY STARTS OFF WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA,
PUMPING PSEUDO-TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID-70S ON SUNDAY, WITH
PWATS BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2"....THIS IS CLOSE TO 2 STDEV ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MID-JULY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING (HIGHS IN THE 80S) TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 TO
2000 J/KG...WITH MUCAPE POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 3000-3500 J/KG AT
TIMES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5C/KM WILL ALLOW CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE, MAINLY IN THE 5.5 TO 6C/KM RANGE. THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST, WITH DIFFERENTIAL MOISTURE AND HEATING EVIDENT, ALONG WITH
MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE FORECAST. OVERALL WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP
SHEAR DOWN AROUND 15-25KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. WPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ON THE SLOWER
SIDE, CONSIDERING THE 850-500MB FLOW IS ONLY 10-20 KTS OUT OF THE
SW, KEEPING MBE VECTORS SHORT IN THE SOUNDINGS. WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS INCREASE ABOVE 10-12K FT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING, AGAIN SUPPORTING POTENTIALLY VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES.
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHILE LIKELY GRADUALLY LOSING INTENSITY AS HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WANE. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOWS BETWEEN 65 TO 70.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS; ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
FROM BINGHAMTON SOUTH AND EAST, WHERE PWATS OF 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, ALONG WITH 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN ON THE
LOWER SIDE, CLOSE TO 20 KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER. THUS, WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER ON MONDAY, BUT STILL RATHER
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S EXPECTED.
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT AND BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-60S.
PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
240 PM UPDATE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
PROVIDING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH JUST ISOLATED DIURNAL T'STORMS
AROUND. IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EXPECTED. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S, WITH HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST, WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RISING MOISTURE, PWATS AND
INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN. OFFICIAL FORECAST STICKS WITH THE ENSEMBLE
BLEND (NBM) WHICH BRINGS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR
T'STORMS IN THIS PERIOD. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUMMER-LIKE IN THE MID-80S TO
AROUND 90 THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE, SO
TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED TO AVP, ELM, BGM, AND ITH. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER/STORM PASSES DIRECTLY
OVER A TERMINAL. MOST MODELS KEEP SHOWERS SOUTH OF SYR AND RME.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG AT ELM AND POSSIBLY
BGM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH COULD BE GUSTY UNDER SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN SAT MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH, MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BTL/ES
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