681
FXUS61 KBGM 160534
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR. THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEEL MORE LIKE FALL THAN SUMMER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- STAYS WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY; SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY MAY FIZZLE OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
- COOLER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS RETURNING
AROUND MIDWEEK
- TRENDING DRIER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
HURRICANE ERIN STAYS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
DISCUSSION:
TODAY WAS LOOKING DRY AND LIKELY WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION BUT MOST OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING SOME POP-UP SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON OF NEPA AND CATSKILLS. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE MOVING
ALONG AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COULD SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS THOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY. THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PRESENT OVER
THE REGION. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, SO NOT EVERYONE
WILL SEE RAIN TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS MORE NORTH AND
WEST IN CNY. AGAIN, THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO STRONG STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 IN METRO AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. FORTUNATELY DEWPOINTS WILL
BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR
IN PLACE, SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE OUT AS THE
FRONT TRIES TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR AHEAD OF IT. AS A RESULT, THE
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER WITH EACH FORECAST UPDATE,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. THE SET UP DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT IF CAPE CAN REACH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG, THEN
SOME STRONGER PULSE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES, SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL BUT GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN, HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH
COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS CONDITIONS WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE FALL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING
OUT IN THE 70S.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A COUPLE OF WEEK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS, THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING VARIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE, SO
CHANCE POPS ARE MAINTAINED BOTH DAYS WITH THIS UPDATE. THEN LATE IN
THE WEEK, HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP STEER THE STORM
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT, THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING TO
BE THE NEXT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
WARMER.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
130 AM UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WITH TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO FALL TO OR BELOW THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE AT ELM, DECIDED TO ONLY MENTION SOME VERY
LIGHT, VFR (6SM) MIST/FOG NEAR DAYBREAK HERE.
OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS
TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADD AT ANY TAF SITE JUST YET. ALTHOUGH BEST
SHOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AT BGM/AVP, WITH 25-35% CHANCE AT
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. IT DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MOSTLY CLEAR ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LATE TONIGHT..MAINLY VFR; CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AT ELM.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...ES/MJM
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