387
FXUS61 KBGM 160659
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- STAYS WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY; SHOWERS WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY COULD DISSIPATED AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
- COOLER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS RETURNING
AROUND MIDWEEK.
- TRENDING DRIER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
HURRICANE ERIN STAYS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION:
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR HAVE ALLOWED A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNY TONIGHT. CAM GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY, BUT LOCATION AND TIMING
ARE NOT LINING UP WELL WITH OBSERVATIONS. ADDED SOME POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS AND WILL MONITOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT.
THEY ARE PROGRESSIVE SO FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE,
LEAVING THE MORNING DRY ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY.
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 IN
METRO AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY, DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 60S WHERE IT IS THE HOTTEST, KEEPING HEAT INDICES BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP ACROSS IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHOWERS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONCE MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. THE SET UP DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS CAPE IS UNDER 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR IS BELOW 20KTS. A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET SOME POCKETS OF ELEVATED CAPE. PWATS
ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES, SO THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL, BUT GIVEN HOW
DRY IT HAS BEEN, HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE N BEHIND THE FRONT TO START THE
WORK WEEK AND MUCH COOLER AIR FILLS IN WITH THE NNW FLOW. TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY, FALLING TO THE LOW 70S
BY WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEK, HURRICANE ERIN WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTH
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC. IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN AT SEA
AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AS IT
MOVES WELL OFF SHORE OF THE MID- ATLANTIC US.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
130 AM UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WITH TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO FALL TO OR BELOW THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE AT ELM, DECIDED TO ONLY MENTION SOME VERY
LIGHT, VFR (6SM) MIST/FOG NEAR DAYBREAK HERE.
OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS
TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADD AT ANY TAF SITE JUST YET. ALTHOUGH BEST
SHOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AT BGM/AVP, WITH 25-35% CHANCE AT
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. IT DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MOSTLY CLEAR ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LATE TONIGHT..MAINLY VFR; CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AT ELM.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
DISCUSSION...BTL/JTC
AVIATION...ES/MJM
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