227  
FXUS61 KBGM 161044  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
644 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. A  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO  
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING VERY COMFORTABLE  
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- STAYS WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY; SHOWERS WITH A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY COULD DISSIPATED AS IT MOVES THROUGH  
THE AREA.  
- COOLER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS RETURNING  
AROUND MIDWEEK.  
- TRENDING DRIER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND  
HURRICANE ERIN STAYS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR HAVE ALLOWED A FEW ISOLATED  
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNY TONIGHT. CAM GUIDANCE  
HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY, BUT LOCATION AND TIMING  
ARE NOT LINING UP WELL WITH OBSERVATIONS. ADDED SOME POPS IN TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS AND WILL MONITOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT.  
THEY ARE PROGRESSIVE SO FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE,  
LEAVING THE MORNING DRY ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL  
PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. AREAS IN THE  
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY.  
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 IN  
METRO AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY, DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE  
LOW 60S WHERE IT IS THE HOTTEST, KEEPING HEAT INDICES BELOW  
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP ACROSS IN THE LATE  
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR IN  
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHOWERS  
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY  
AFTERNOON. ONCE MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE  
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS  
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. THE SET UP DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE  
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS CAPE IS UNDER 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK  
SHEAR IS BELOW 20KTS. A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS MAY BE  
POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET SOME POCKETS OF ELEVATED CAPE. PWATS  
ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES, SO THERE IS  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL, BUT GIVEN HOW  
DRY IT HAS BEEN, HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE N BEHIND THE FRONT TO START THE  
WORK WEEK AND MUCH COOLER AIR FILLS IN WITH THE NNW FLOW. TEMPS  
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY, FALLING TO THE LOW 70S  
BY WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES TUESDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE  
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
LATE IN THE WEEK, HURRICANE ERIN WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTH  
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC. IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN AT SEA  
AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AS IT  
MOVES WELL OFF SHORE OF THE MID- ATLANTIC US.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
640 AM UPDATE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A  
WEAK WAVE IS EXITING WITH POP UP SHOWERS THIS MORNING.  
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ARE  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES TO SEE RAIN/T'STORM WILL BE AT, OR  
INVOF AVP AND BGM. PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED AT THESE TWO SITES  
FOR WHEN CHANCES LOOKED THE HIGHEST FOR POP UP CONVECTION. A  
STRAY SHOWER OR T'STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE OTHER  
REMAINING TAF SITES; BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO  
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
 
THE CHANCE FOR FOG AT ELM TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING  
REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHETHER ANY  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW  
MUCH, IF ANY RAIN FALL NEAR ELM TODAY, AND CLOUD COVER  
OVERNIGHT. DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADD FOG AT THIS TIME.  
 
OTHERWISE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY,  
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET ONCE AGAIN.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG  
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...BTL  
DISCUSSION...BTL/JTC  
AVIATION...MJM  
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