257  
FXUS61 KBGM 161646  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
1246 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. A  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO  
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING VERY COMFORTABLE  
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- STAYS WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY; SHOWERS WITH A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY COULD DISSIPATED AS IT MOVES THROUGH  
THE AREA.  
- COOLER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS RETURNING  
AROUND MIDWEEK.  
- TRENDING DRIER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND  
HURRICANE ERIN STAYS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR HAVE ALLOWED A FEW ISOLATED  
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNY TONIGHT. CAM GUIDANCE  
HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY, BUT LOCATION AND TIMING  
ARE NOT LINING UP WELL WITH OBSERVATIONS. ADDED SOME POPS IN TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS AND WILL MONITOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT.  
THEY ARE PROGRESSIVE SO FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE,  
LEAVING THE MORNING DRY ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL  
PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. AREAS IN THE  
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY.  
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 IN  
METRO AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY, DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE  
LOW 60S WHERE IT IS THE HOTTEST, KEEPING HEAT INDICES BELOW  
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP ACROSS IN THE LATE  
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR IN  
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHOWERS  
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY  
AFTERNOON. ONCE MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE  
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS  
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. THE SET UP DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE  
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS CAPE IS UNDER 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK  
SHEAR IS BELOW 20KTS. A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS MAY BE  
POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET SOME POCKETS OF ELEVATED CAPE. PWATS  
ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES, SO THERE IS  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL, BUT GIVEN HOW  
DRY IT HAS BEEN, HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE N BEHIND THE FRONT TO START THE  
WORK WEEK AND MUCH COOLER AIR FILLS IN WITH THE NNW FLOW. TEMPS  
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY, FALLING TO THE LOW 70S  
BY WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES TUESDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE  
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
LATE IN THE WEEK, HURRICANE ERIN WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTH  
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC. IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN AT SEA  
AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AS IT  
MOVES WELL OFF SHORE OF THE MID- ATLANTIC US.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND A  
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP AROUND OR OVER KAVP THIS  
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW OPTED TO GO WITH JUST A TEMPO MENTION GIVEN  
THE UNCERTAINITY AND OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY.  
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT KELM IN THE TYPICAL 06-12Z  
WINDOW, DATA SUGGESTS MORE OF AN MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...BTL  
DISCUSSION...JTC  
AVIATION...MWG  
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