358
FXUS61 KBGM 170546
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
AREAS IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTH-AND-EAST OF I-81
IN NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL
ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING VERY
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FOR NE PA AND AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-81 IN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
- STAYS WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, LEADING TO A COOLER
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
- TRENDING DRIER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
HURRICANE ERIN STAYS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION:
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, KICKING OFF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A STORM OR TWO WILL BE IN
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-81 IN
NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON TOMORROW, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP ACROSS IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHOWERS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONCE MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. THE SET UP DOES NOT FAVOR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS CAPE IS UNDER 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR IS BELOW 20KTS. A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET SOME POCKETS OF ELEVATED CAPE. PWATS ARE
LOOKING TO BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES, SO THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL, BUT GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS
BEEN, HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TO START
THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH COOLER AIR FILLS IN WITH THE NNW FLOW.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY, FALLING TO THE LOW
70S BY WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEK, HURRICANE ERIN WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTH
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC. IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN AT SEA
AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AS IT
MOVES WELL OFF SHORE OF THE MID- ATLANTIC US.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
145 AM UPDATE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AT ELM WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD, SO KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF HERE.
A COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH IT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USING A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE, TEMPO GROUPS
WERE ADDED AT RME/SYR FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/FUEL ALT
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPOS WERE
ADDED AT ITH/ELM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PROB30 GROUPS
WERE ADDED AT BGM/AVP ALSO FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MVFR OR LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG
WITH MVFR/FUEL ALT CIGS LINGERING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS
THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR BGM FOR A FEW
HOURS, BUT KEPT THESE LOWER CLOUD BASES AS FEW OR SCT AT ELM,
ITH AND AVP...AS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE FOR IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP AT THESE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 15-20
KTS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT UP TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE TONIGHT...CEILING RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER;
ESPECIALLY AVP AND NE PA.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
DISCUSSION...JTC/KL
AVIATION...BTL/MJM
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