501  
FXUS61 KBGM 170718  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
318 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE  
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING VERY COMFORTABLE  
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED URBAN FLASH FLOODING MAY BE  
POSSIBLE FROM FINGER LAKES TO NEPA.  
 
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH  
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
- TRENDING DRIER TUESDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE INFLUENCE STICKING AROUND AND THE APPROACHING LOW  
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EITHER MOVING SW OF THE AREA OR RUNNING  
INTO DRY AIR.  
 
- HURRICANE ERIN EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS WE WAIT FOR A COLD FRONT TO  
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD  
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, STARTING IN THE WESTERN  
FINGER LAKES LATER THIS MORNING, AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE UNDER  
THRESHOLDS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, SO IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. PWATS ARE IN THE 1.75-2IN RANGE FROM  
THE FINGER LAKES SE INTO NEPA, SO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. SOUNDINGS  
SHOW SOMEWHAT SMALL MBE VECTORS, LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR A FEW  
STORMS TO BE SLOW OR HAVE MULTIPLE CELLS PASS OVER THE SAME  
AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES MAY  
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND THOSE AREAS PRONE TO  
FLOODING ISSUES. BECAUSE OF THIS, A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAIN LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE FINGER  
LAKES INTO NEPA.  
 
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING,  
CLEARING OUT RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH DRIER  
AND COOLER AIR WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. TEMPS  
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH EVEN  
SOME UPPER 40S MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.  
 
COOL AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH  
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS CANADA. WHAT WAS PROGGED AS A SOMEWHAT  
WET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAS TRENDED DRIER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER SE CANADA STALLS OUT AND PUSHES THE APPROACHING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER SW OF THE AREA OR THE LOW RUNS INTO DRY  
AIR AND ONLY PRODUCES SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. NBM  
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT  
WILL UNFOLD, AND IT HAD NOT PICKED UP ON THE DRYING TREND YET  
BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO CHANGE POPS THIS FAR OUT.  
 
ANOTHER FACTOR IN HOW THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE FOR  
THE END OF THE WEEK IS THE TRACK OF HURRICANE ERIN. THE  
FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THE STORM OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH NO  
LANDFALL EXPECTED. IT LOOKS TO BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH A VERY  
LARGE FOOTPRINT THAT COULD ENHANCE NNW FLOW OVER THE AREA AS IT  
GETS CAUGHT UP IN A TROUGH MOVING OVER CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND  
ON THURS/FRI AS IT TRACKS OFF-SHORE OF THE US. NO IMPACTS ARE  
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA BUT WE WILL MONITOR ITS  
DEVELOPMENT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
145 AM UPDATE  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE CROSSOVER  
TEMPERATURE AT ELM WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD, SO KEPT FOG  
OUT OF THE TAF HERE.  
 
A COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS  
AFTERNOON. WITH IT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
USING A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE, TEMPO GROUPS  
WERE ADDED AT RME/SYR FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/FUEL ALT  
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPOS WERE  
ADDED AT ITH/ELM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON,  
WITH MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PROB30 GROUPS  
WERE ADDED AT BGM/AVP ALSO FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MVFR OR LOWER  
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL.  
 
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG  
WITH MVFR/FUEL ALT CIGS LINGERING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS  
THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR BGM FOR A FEW  
HOURS, BUT KEPT THESE LOWER CLOUD BASES AS FEW OR SCT AT ELM,  
ITH AND AVP...AS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE FOR IFR CIGS TO  
DEVELOP AT THESE TERMINALS.  
 
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT  
PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 15-20  
KTS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT UP TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
LATE TONIGHT...CEILING RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.  
 
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.  
 
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.  
 
WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.  
 
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER;  
ESPECIALLY AVP AND NE PA.  
 
 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...JTC/KL  
DISCUSSION...JTC/KL  
AVIATION...BTL/MJM  
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