784
FXUS61 KBGM 171030
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED URBAN FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE FROM FINGER LAKES TO NEPA.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
- TRENDING DRIER TUESDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE STICKING AROUND AND THE APPROACHING LOW
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EITHER MOVING SW OF THE AREA OR RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR.
- HURRICANE ERIN EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION:
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS WE WAIT FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, STARTING IN THE WESTERN
FINGER LAKES LATER THIS MORNING, AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE UNDER
THRESHOLDS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, SO IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. PWATS ARE IN THE 1.75-2IN RANGE FROM
THE FINGER LAKES SE INTO NEPA, SO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOMEWHAT SMALL MBE VECTORS, LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BE SLOW OR HAVE MULTIPLE CELLS PASS OVER THE SAME
AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES MAY
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND THOSE AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING ISSUES. BECAUSE OF THIS, A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE FINGER
LAKES INTO NEPA.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING,
CLEARING OUT RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH EVEN
SOME UPPER 40S MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
COOL AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS CANADA. WHAT WAS PROGGED AS A SOMEWHAT
WET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAS TRENDED DRIER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SE CANADA STALLS OUT AND PUSHES THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER SW OF THE AREA OR THE LOW RUNS INTO DRY
AIR AND ONLY PRODUCES SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. NBM
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT
WILL UNFOLD, AND IT HAD NOT PICKED UP ON THE DRYING TREND YET
BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO CHANGE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
ANOTHER FACTOR IN HOW THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK IS THE TRACK OF HURRICANE ERIN. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THE STORM OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH NO
LANDFALL EXPECTED. IT LOOKS TO BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH A VERY
LARGE FOOTPRINT THAT COULD ENHANCE NNW FLOW OVER THE AREA AS IT
GETS CAUGHT UP IN A TROUGH MOVING OVER CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
ON THURS/FRI AS IT TRACKS OFF-SHORE OF THE US. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA BUT WE WILL MONITOR ITS
DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
630 AM UPDATE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.
ANY PATCHY FOG NEAR ELM AND BGM WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z
EARLY THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH IT, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
USING A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE, TEMPO GROUPS
WERE ADDED AT RME/SYR FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/FUEL ALT
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPOS WERE
ADDED AT ITH/ELM/BGM AND AVP FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG
WITH MVFR/FUEL ALT CIGS LINGERING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS
THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR BGM FOR A FEW
HOURS (00-05Z), BUT KEPT ANY IFR CLOUD BASES AS FEW OR SCT AT
ELM, ITH AND AVP...AS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE FOR IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP AT THESE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 15 KTS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT UP TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING,
SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER;
ESPECIALLY AVP AND NE PA.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC/KL
DISCUSSION...JTC/KL
AVIATION...MJM
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