118  
FXUS61 KBGM 171723  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
123 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. COOLER  
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING VERY  
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- A COLD FRONT FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON  
TO EARLY EVENING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER.  
 
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH  
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
- WEAKENING WAVE PASSES AROUND MIDWEEK WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDER.  
 
- HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR AREA;  
STAYING WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
A MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK, AND  
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENTLY.  
 
CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WERE ALREADY ON THE  
LOW SIDE, AND CONTINUE TO LOWER, COURTESY OF EARLIER-THAN-  
ANTICIPATED CONVECTION SPREADING CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA  
TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. WE STILL HAVE A FRONT PROGRESSING  
THROUGH, HOWEVER, TO YIELD SOME SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO STILL  
DECENT HEATING GOING ON IN THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS, WHICH  
COULD STILL MANAGE NEW POP-UP CELLS. PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE  
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY REACHING 1000 J/KG STILL GETS AROUND  
50-60 PERCENT IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOSTLY TO THE  
SOUTHEAST. IT WOULD TAKE MORE THAN THAT, GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR, TO  
REALIZE MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO, THOUGH SHEAR IS  
LACKING FROM AN ORGANIZATION STANDPOINT, THERE IS ENOUGH FLOW  
AND MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARIES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT TO HOLD BACK  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
APPROACHING 1.8-2.0 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. OVERALL,  
WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS REMAINS THE AREA TO MONITOR THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR NEW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT COULD GENERATE  
A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING, PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER GUSTS, AND  
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.  
 
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES WANE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN EARLY  
EVENING. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION  
FROM CANADA. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO NEAR 60 IN THE WYOMING  
VALLEY-POCONOS, INTO 50S FOR TWIN TIERS, AND EVEN MID 40S-LOWER  
50S FOR SOME OF CENTRAL NY, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.  
 
COOL AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH  
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS CANADA. RAIN CHANCES HAVE CONTINUED TO  
TREND A BIT LOWER FOR A WAVE THAT PASSES AROUND WEDNESDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA STALLS OUT TO CAUSE AN IMPEDIMENT  
TO THE WAVE; EITHER WEAKENING IT OR AT LEAST FORCING IT INTO  
DRY AIR. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS HAS FOLLOWED THE EXPECTED  
TREND IN KEEPING TUESDAY MOSTLY DRY, AND LOWERING RAIN  
PROBABILITIES INTO THE LOW-TO-MID CHANCE RANGE WEDNESDAY  
INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD LIKELY. THUNDER CHANCES ARE EVEN MORE  
MUTED; JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE  
FINGER LAKES TO NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. AS THE BOUNDARY DISSOLVES,  
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE FIGURED TO LINGER INTO  
THURSDAY FOR SOME, FOLLOWED BY WARMER YET DRY CONDITIONS UNDER  
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.  
 
PLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS FOR DETAILS  
ON HURRICANE ERIN. BUT FOR OUR AREA, NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED GIVEN  
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR IT TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AND DISTANT. THE  
MOST IT WOULD DO FOR US IS TO SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGE THE ALREADY-  
EXPECTED NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY, KEEPING US  
GENERALLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
630 AM UPDATE  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.  
ANY PATCHY FOG NEAR ELM AND BGM WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z  
EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
A COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS  
AFTERNOON. WITH IT, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
USING A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE, TEMPO GROUPS  
WERE ADDED AT RME/SYR FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/FUEL ALT  
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPOS WERE  
ADDED AT ITH/ELM/BGM AND AVP FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS  
POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.  
 
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG  
WITH MVFR/FUEL ALT CIGS LINGERING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS  
THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR BGM FOR A FEW  
HOURS (00-05Z), BUT KEPT ANY IFR CLOUD BASES AS FEW OR SCT AT  
ELM, ITH AND AVP...AS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE FOR IFR CIGS TO  
DEVELOP AT THESE TERMINALS.  
 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. AS  
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS  
NEAR 15 KTS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT UP TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING,  
SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.  
 
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.  
 
WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.  
 
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER;  
ESPECIALLY AVP AND NE PA.  
 
 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MDP  
DISCUSSION...MDP  
AVIATION...MJM  
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