463
FXUS61 KBGM 171735
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING VERY
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
- WEAKENING WAVE PASSES AROUND MIDWEEK WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER.
- HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR AREA;
STAYING WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION:
A MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK, AND
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENTLY.
CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WERE ALREADY ON THE
LOW SIDE, AND CONTINUE TO LOWER, COURTESY OF EARLIER-THAN-
ANTICIPATED CONVECTION SPREADING CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. WE STILL HAVE A FRONT PROGRESSING
THROUGH, HOWEVER, TO YIELD SOME SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO STILL
DECENT HEATING GOING ON IN THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS, WHICH
COULD STILL MANAGE NEW POP-UP CELLS. PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY REACHING 1000 J/KG STILL GETS AROUND
50-60 PERCENT IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IT WOULD TAKE MORE THAN THAT, GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR, TO
REALIZE MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO, THOUGH SHEAR IS
LACKING FROM AN ORGANIZATION STANDPOINT, THERE IS ENOUGH FLOW
AND MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARIES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT TO HOLD BACK
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 1.8-2.0 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. OVERALL,
WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS REMAINS THE AREA TO MONITOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NEW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT COULD GENERATE
A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING, PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER GUSTS, AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES WANE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN EARLY
EVENING. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION
FROM CANADA. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO NEAR 60 IN THE WYOMING
VALLEY-POCONOS, INTO 50S FOR TWIN TIERS, AND EVEN MID 40S-LOWER
50S FOR SOME OF CENTRAL NY, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
COOL AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS CANADA. RAIN CHANCES HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND A BIT LOWER FOR A WAVE THAT PASSES AROUND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA STALLS OUT TO CAUSE AN IMPEDIMENT
TO THE WAVE; EITHER WEAKENING IT OR AT LEAST FORCING IT INTO
DRY AIR. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS HAS FOLLOWED THE EXPECTED
TREND IN KEEPING TUESDAY MOSTLY DRY, AND LOWERING RAIN
PROBABILITIES INTO THE LOW-TO-MID CHANCE RANGE WEDNESDAY
INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD LIKELY. THUNDER CHANCES ARE EVEN MORE
MUTED; JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE
FINGER LAKES TO NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. AS THE BOUNDARY DISSOLVES,
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE FIGURED TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY FOR SOME, FOLLOWED BY WARMER YET DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS FOR DETAILS
ON HURRICANE ERIN. BUT FOR OUR AREA, NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED GIVEN
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR IT TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AND DISTANT. THE
MOST IT WOULD DO FOR US IS TO SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGE THE ALREADY-
EXPECTED NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY, KEEPING US
GENERALLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF
THE RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OUTSIDE OF KAVP. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, SO A TEMPO WAS ADDED AT KAVP.
TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT A MVFR STRATUS DECK LIKELY MOVING OVER
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE LIFTING OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THIS DECK TO
LIFT TO KEEP OPEN THE CHANCE OF FOG AT KELM FROM ABOUT 06-12Z
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER;
ESPECIALLY AVP AND NE PA.
FRIDAY... VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MDP
DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...MWG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page