511
FXUS61 KBGM 181838
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
238 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT THEN DRIES OUT ONCE AGAIN AND TURNS SLIGHTLY
WARMER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
235 PM UPDATE:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS,
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY WILL THEN FEATURE ANOTHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST, A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY (HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
235 PM UPDATE:
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARDS WITH QPF WITH
THIS FEATURE. NBM HAS LAGGED A BIT WITH THIS UPWARDS TREND, SO
BLENDED IN SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS DATA TO BUMP THE FORECAST QPF
UP A BIT. ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, WITH HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN
RECENTLY, THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES AND
IT WILL ACTUALLY BE WELCOMED BY MOST.
AS THE BOUNDARY DISSOLVES, JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY FOR SOME LOCATIONS, FOLLOWED BY
WARMER YET DRY CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES, UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR T'STORMS BY
SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT
LEAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY). THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KELM
WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN SOME VISBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANY FOG AT KELM SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
12Z AND 13Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAYS...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. THUNDER POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
DISCUSSION...BJG/MJM
AVIATION...BJG
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