724
FXUS61 KBGM 190530
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT THEN DRIES OUT ONCE AGAIN AND TURNS SLIGHTLY
WARMER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
235 PM UPDATE:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS,
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY WILL THEN FEATURE ANOTHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST, A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY (HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
235 PM UPDATE:
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARDS WITH QPF WITH
THIS FEATURE. NBM HAS LAGGED A BIT WITH THIS UPWARDS TREND, SO
BLENDED IN SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS DATA TO BUMP THE FORECAST QPF
UP A BIT. ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, WITH HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN
RECENTLY, THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES AND
IT WILL ACTUALLY BE WELCOMED BY MOST.
AS THE BOUNDARY DISSOLVES, JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY FOR SOME LOCATIONS, FOLLOWED BY
WARMER YET DRY CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES, UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR T'STORMS BY
SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THOUGH ELM MAY BE THE EXCEPTION.
WHILE THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR FOG AT ELM, THE TEMPO GROUP REMAINS
AS THE TEMPERATURE IS COOLING CLOSER TO THE DEWPOINT. THERE IS
A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 12Z AS LOW
CLOUDS CREEP NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
MOVING NORTHWARD AND NEARING AVP. GUIDANCE KEPT CONDITIONS VFR
IN THE VALLEY AND AT THE AIRPORT BUT A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AS OBSERVATIONS UPWIND HAVE ALREADY GONE DOWN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO AT LEAST ELM AND ITH PRIOR TO THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MIDDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS EXPECTED AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...BTL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page