430
FXUS61 KBGM 191025
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
625 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. UNSETTLED, WET AND COOLER
WEATHER THEN ARRIVES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
DRY OUT, WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLE OVER
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
-TRENDING CLOUDIER, WETTER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ABOUT 0.3 AND 1.75 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
-HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL AREA;
LIKELY STAYING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC, TRACKING EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AND WEST OF BERMUDA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MONITOR THE LATEST NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
-A GRADUAL WARM UP, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY. COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
240 AM UPDATE
AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING, TODAY SHOULD FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF PA EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE, AND REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED MUCH CLOUDIER, WETTER AND COOLER TONIGHT,
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CNY COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR NE PA BY DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE COOL, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND A STEADY SOUTHEAST WIND UP TO 10 MPH DEVELOPING.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALL DAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AREAWIDE. A COOL EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND COMBINES WITH THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ALL
DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS LOW 70S FOR THE CHEMUNG AND WYOMING VALLEYS.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ABOUT 0.5 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE TIME THE RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS AMOUNTS OF RAIN SHOULD LARGELY BE BENEFICIAL
ACROSS THE AREA, TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE RECENT DRYNESS. NO FLOODING
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM THE STEADY RAINFALL, BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE TRENDS IN FORECAST RAINFALL.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE OUTER CIRCULATION FROM HURRICANE ERIN TO
THE SOUTH PUSHES NORTH ON THIS WEAKENING FRONTAL FEATURE. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE FOR OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
240 AM UPDATE
A WEAK, LINGERING FRONT COULD STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NE PA ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE STALLED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MASSIVE
HURRICANE ERIN OFF THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN PLACE FROM THE TWIN TIERS
SOUTH ACROSS NE PA, ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES. FURTHER
NORTH, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY TOWARD THE I-90
CORRIDOR, AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA, REACHING THE UPPER 70S...WITH UPPER 60S
TO MID-70S EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. IT WILL
BE COOL AND QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS BETWEEN 45 TO 55F EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA, BRINGING WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LATE DAY OR
EVENING SHOWERS AND T'STROMS LATE ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S BOTH DAYS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE (50-60%) FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND
IT WON'T BE AS WARM. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND NEXT TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
HOURS AT BGM. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT, AFTER 03Z,
WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS. CONDITIONS WILL GO FROM MVFR TO
IFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BGM AND AVP. RAIN WAS KEPT OUT OF
AVP AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
THERE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE WITH THIS UPDATE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS AROUND 15
KTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AVP'S WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BTL
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