599
FXUS61 KBGM 191843
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRY
OUT, WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
235 PM UPDATE:
AFTER MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR NORTHEAST PA BY DAYBREAK. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 1 INCH
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE. A COOL EAST-
SOUTHEAST WIND COMBINES WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ALL DAY, EXCEPT
PERHAPS LOWER 70S FOR THE CHEMUNG AND WYOMING VALLEYS. WHILE THE
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STALLED TO THE SOUTH. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S.
THE WEAK LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT COULD STILL BE LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
ERIN OFF OF THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN PLACE FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES.
FURTHER NORTH, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY TOWARD
THE I-90 CORRIDOR, AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
235 PM UPDATE:
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-81 TOWARDS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATER IN THE DAY.
A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CANADA WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH THIS TROUGH, WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT RAIN AND
LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
RESTRICTIONS WILL INITIALLY BE MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE, BUT IFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FOR
THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. LESS CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR
RESTRICTIONS AT KAVP DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...BJG
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