190
FXUS61 KBGM 200557
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRY
OUT, WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
235 PM UPDATE:
AFTER MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR NORTHEAST PA BY DAYBREAK. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 1 INCH
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE. A COOL EAST-
SOUTHEAST WIND COMBINES WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ALL DAY, EXCEPT
PERHAPS LOWER 70S FOR THE CHEMUNG AND WYOMING VALLEYS. WHILE THE
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STALLED TO THE SOUTH. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S.
THE WEAK LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT COULD STILL BE LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
ERIN OFF OF THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN PLACE FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES.
FURTHER NORTH, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY TOWARD
THE I-90 CORRIDOR, AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
235 PM UPDATE:
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-81 TOWARDS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATER IN THE DAY.
A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CANADA WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH THIS TROUGH, WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO START BUT WILL THEN FALL TO MVFR AND
FUEL ALT PRIOR TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z, IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. GENERALLY, A SOUTHEAST WIND DOES NOT RESULT IN
IFR CONDITIONS AT AVP, SO CEILINGS WERE CAPPED AT 1000 FT AGL
THERE. BLENDED SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR AT SYR AND RME BUT THERE WERE ALSO MANY
OTHER MODELS FAVORING AT LEAST IFR AT THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR THIS
UPDATE, IFR WAS INCLUDED BUT CEILINGS WERE CAPPED AT THE UPPER
LIMIT.
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND ENDS THIS
EVENING, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONGER
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THIS RAIN WILL BE LIGHT, VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED MUCH THOUGH BRIEF HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY TAKE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 2 MILES AT TIMES.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND LIGHTER
THIS EVENING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING; OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...AJG/BTL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page