456
FXUS61 KBGM 201753
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY
DRYING OUT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONT THEN BRINGS A RENEWED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
140 PM UPDATE:
A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN IN OUR
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING IS ACROSS THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS, BUT
EVEN THIS SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY. AS THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE SOUTH, SOME ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED BY
THE MID-AFTERNOON, BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. OTHERWISE,
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED TO THE SOUTH, THERE
STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT, BUT MOST
AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT. PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA, PERHAPS
LOCALLY DENSE. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
CLOUDS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE LINGERS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE REGION WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE EXTREME FAR PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE ERIN. EVENTUALLY THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY DRIES OUT THE MID LEVELS,
WHICH SHOULD ALL THE CLOUDS TO BREAK FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY. IT
WILL STILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ALL OF FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS
LOW AND COMFORTABLE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
140 PM UPDATE:
SATURDAY WILL START OFF MAINLY DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S AREAWIDE, BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES
LATER IN THE EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WHAT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT; A FASTER TIMING MAY KEEP MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-81, WHILE A SLOWER
TIMING MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE. DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD
HELP TO DEVELOP SOME BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IF INSTABILITY
CAN BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
MOVING FORWARD.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE, ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY AND EVEN WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
MORE CLOUDS, BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID-60S TO 70S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-40S TO 50S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE REMAINING. THE STRATUS AND PRECIPITATION HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR AND EVEN SOME LIFR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE WINDS SLACKEN MORE TONIGHT AND WITH CIGS
LOWERING SO MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IFR AND EVEN LIFR AT
TIMES THROUGH 12Z. WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN, GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR IS EXPECTED BY 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS. ITH AND AVP HAVE
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SE WINDS IF THEY CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS. SYR AND ELM MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED FOR POTENTIAL TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...POTENTIAL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
DISCUSSION...BJG/MJM
AVIATION...AJG
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