952  
FXUS61 KBGM 210549  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
149 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT  
CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY DRYING OUT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER  
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL  
BRING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER LINGERING  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
140 PM UPDATE:  
 
A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED  
WITH THIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN IN OUR  
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING IS ACROSS THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS, BUT  
EVEN THIS SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY. AS THE  
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE SOUTH, SOME ADDITIONAL  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED BY  
THE MID-AFTERNOON, BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. OTHERWISE,  
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE,  
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE  
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.  
 
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED TO THE SOUTH, THERE  
STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT, BUT MOST  
AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT. PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA, PERHAPS  
LOCALLY DENSE. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.  
 
CLOUDS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE LINGERS INTO  
THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE REGION WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND  
THE EXTREME FAR PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE ERIN. EVENTUALLY THE  
FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY DRIES OUT THE MID LEVELS,  
WHICH SHOULD ALL THE CLOUDS TO BREAK FOR SOME AFTERNOON  
SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY. IT  
WILL STILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL  
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ALL OF FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID  
70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS  
LOW AND COMFORTABLE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING COOL  
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID  
40S TO MID 50S.  
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
140 PM UPDATE:  
 
SATURDAY WILL START OFF MAINLY DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES  
WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S AREAWIDE, BUT HUMIDITY  
LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES  
LATER IN THE EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.  
 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON  
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WHAT REMAINS TO BE  
SEEN IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT; A FASTER TIMING MAY KEEP MOST  
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-81, WHILE A SLOWER  
TIMING MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE. DEEP  
LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD  
HELP TO DEVELOP SOME BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IF INSTABILITY  
CAN BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH  
MOVING FORWARD.  
 
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE, ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES  
OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY AND EVEN WEDNESDAY. THIS  
FEATURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES,  
MORE CLOUDS, BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  
SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE AS 850MB  
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR  
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID-60S TO 70S  
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-40S TO 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
145 AM UPDATE  
 
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF  
THE ATMOSPHERE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING WIDESPREAD  
MVFR FUEL ALT CIGS, WITH IFR/LIFR ALSO BEING OBSERVED AT ELM AND  
BGM, RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP A BIT FURTHER THROUGH  
12-14Z THIS MORNING, WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
AT ITH AND AVP FOR A FEW HOURS. RME AND SYR ARE FORECAST TO  
REMAIN MVFR. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST  
THOUGH DAYBREAK OR MID-MONRING, ESPECIALLY AT BGM.  
 
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS MORNING, WITH BGM,  
ITH, AVP AND ELM COMING UP TO MVFR/FUEL ALT BY AROUND 16Z...AND  
SYR/RME LIKELY SCATTERING OUT AND IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND THE  
SAME TIME.  
 
MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS  
AT ITH, ELM, BGM AND AVP...BECOMING VFR AT BGM AND ITH BY  
19-20Z, AND ELM/AVP BY 21-22Z, AS CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FROM NE  
TO SW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AREAWIDE FOR THE EVENING  
HOURS, UNTIL THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR  
VALLEY FOG FORMING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
WIND WILL BE STEADY EAST-NORTHEAST UP TO 10 KTS THIS MORNING AND  
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND TO MORE  
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH,  
UNDER 5 KTS BY SUNSET AND BECOMING VARIABLE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING FOG LIKELY  
AT ELM.  
 
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING  
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.  
 
MONDAY...POTENTIAL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BJG  
DISCUSSION...BJG/MJM  
AVIATION...JAB/MJM  
 
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