249  
FXUS61 KBGM 211052  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
652 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE  
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS THEN LINGER INTO  
NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
KEY MESSAGES...  
 
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY  
- COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY  
- RAIN SHOWERS LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK; TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL END EARLY THIS  
MORNING. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE, PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED  
AND SHOULD CLEAR UP BY AROUND SUNRISE. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO  
CLEAR TODAY SO WHILE SOME MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE, OTHERS WILL BE  
STUCK UNDER THE CLOUDS UNTIL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL  
CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY. HURRICANE ERIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN OUT  
TO SEA TONIGHT AS IT NEARS THE NJ COAST. WHILE ERIN IS A FAIRLY  
LARGE STORM, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM AS THE  
OUTER BANDS OF RAIN AND WINDS WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH TO THE WEST.  
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND  
ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE YESTERDAY'S RAIN, CONDITIONS WILL BE  
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY, VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP  
INTO THE 40S AND 50S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF  
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S  
AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY AND THEN 80S ON SATURDAY. NIGHTLY TEMPERATURES  
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH LOWS OF 50S ON FRIDAY AND A MIX OF 50S  
AND 60S ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY  
MORNING. THEN SKY COVER INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES AND HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT  
WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, MODELS HAVE SOME INSTABILITY AND MODEST  
SHEAR, ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT THIS ALL DEPENDS  
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WPC HAS THE ENTIRE REGION IN A MARGINAL  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY. PWATS ARE GENERALLY LESS  
THAN 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS BELOW 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WHEN LOOKING AT  
PWAT ANOMALIES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF PRECIPITATION  
ACCUMULATION BETWEEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE GEFS MUCH DRIER THAN  
THE EPS. WITH THE QUIETER WEATHER AHEAD, THIS WILL BE THE NEXT  
SYSTEM WORTH MONITORING AND DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE  
NEAR THE WEEKEND.  
 
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE WAVES RIDE  
ALONG A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF  
THE COUNTRY. WEAK INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY STRONG SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH  
TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. AS A COOLER AIR MASS DROPS  
IN, LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK  
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND  
COOLER AND BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
645 AM UPDATE  
 
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF  
THE ATMOSPHERE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING WIDESPREAD  
MVFR FUEL ALT CIGS, WITH IFR/LIFR ALSO BEING OBSERVED AT BGM,  
IN FOG. RME AND SYR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR NOW.  
 
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS MORNING, WITH BGM,  
ITH, AVP AND ELM COMING UP TO MVFR BY AROUND 16-18Z...AND  
SYR/RME LIKELY SCATTERING OUT AND IMPROVING FURTHER HEADING INTO  
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT BGM AND ITH BY  
18-19Z, AND ELM/AVP BY 21Z, AS CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FROM NE TO  
SW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AREAWIDE FOR THE EVENING  
HOURS, AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS OF FOG  
FORMING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LATER  
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, HAVE A MENTION OF  
FOG/MIST AT ELM AND BGM WHERE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING THE GREATEST  
POTENTIAL.  
 
WIND WILL BE STEADY EAST-NORTHEAST UP TO 10 KTS THIS MORNING AND  
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND TO MORE  
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH,  
UNDER 5 KTS BY SUNSET AND BECOMING VARIABLE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING FOG LIKELY AT ELM AND PERHAPS  
BGM.  
 
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING  
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.  
 
MONDAY...POTENTIAL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  
 
 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...BJG/BTL  
DISCUSSION...BTL  
AVIATION...MJM  
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